Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Kitara
vs
Kigezi HomeBoyz
1 – 0 Full time
| 23′ | E. Namasa |
Kitara
70%
Draw
22%
Kigezi HomeBoyz
9%
Kitara vs Kigezi HomeBoyz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kitara vs Kigezi HomeBoyz
| Probability | Kitara | Draw | Kigezi HomeBoyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.7% | 21.6% | 8.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.7% | 21.6% | 8.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kitara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
9%
Kitara and Kigezi HomeBoyz expected goals
Kitara
1.94
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0.55
Total expected goals: 2.49
Kitara and Kigezi HomeBoyz attack and defence ratings
Kitara
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
1.24 +24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kitara vs Kigezi HomeBoyz: result vs prediction
Kitara 1 – 0 Kigezi HomeBoyz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kitara vs Kigezi HomeBoyz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 69.7% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz | 8.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.1% |
| No | 62.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win | 44.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 30.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.6% |
| 1-0 | 15.2% | |
| 3-0 | 10.1% |
Kitara vs Kigezi HomeBoyz stats
Kitara and Kigezi HomeBoyz recent form
| Kitara |
DWWDDD |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz |
LDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.