Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Maroons
vs
Lugazi
3 – 0 Full time
| 57′ | F. Amaku | ||
| 75′ | D. Niwamanya | ||
| 78′ | M. Ogama | ||
| 82′ | F. Odong |
Maroons
49%
Draw
32%
Lugazi
20%
Maroons vs Lugazi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maroons vs Lugazi
| Probability | Maroons | Draw | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 32.0% | 18.7% |
| Market | 48.5% | 31.5% | 20.0% |
| Final | 48.7% | 31.6% | 19.7% |
| Edge | +0.9% | +0.5% | -1.4% |
Why Maroons
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.68.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
84%
2+ goals
59%
3+ goals
31%
No goals
16%
Maroons and Lugazi expected goals
Maroons
1.26
Lugazi
0.68
Total expected goals: 1.94
Maroons and Lugazi attack and defence ratings
Maroons
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Lugazi
Attack
0.68 -32%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Maroons vs Lugazi: result vs prediction
Maroons 3 – 0 Lugazi
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maroons vs Lugazi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 48.7% | 2.05 | +0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 48.7% |
| Draw | 31.6% | |
| Lugazi | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.5% |
| No | 63.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.9% |
| 0-0 | 15.6% | |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
Maroons vs Lugazi stats
Maroons vs Lugazi head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
4Maroons wins
0Draws
0Lugazi wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Lugazi | Maroons | Uganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Maroons | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Lugazi | Maroons | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Maroons | Lugazi | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Maroons vs Lugazi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 31.5%, away 20.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 2.77 | 5.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 2.77 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.82 | 2.61 | 5.16 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 2.90 | 4.00 |