Lugazi
vs
BUL
Garuda Lions Prediction: BUL
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Lugazi vs BUL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lugazi vs BUL
| Probability | Lugazi | Draw | BUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.5% | 30.4% | 48.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.5% | 30.4% | 48.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why BUL
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Lugazi vs BUL match preview
In the upcoming Uganda Premier League match, Lugazi faces BUL with kickoff scheduled for October 13, 2026. The model suggests a 26% probability of a Lugazi win, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 41% likelihood of a BUL victory. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance. Expected goals indicate Lugazi at 0.88 and BUL at 1.17, while the probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 34% and both teams scoring at 42%.
Recent form shows Lugazi with a record of L-W-L-W-L-D, while BUL has performed strongly with W-W-W-W-L-D. In their last two encounters, Lugazi has secured 1 win and 1 draw against BUL, who have yet to win in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lugazi and BUL expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Lugazi and BUL attack and defence ratings
Lugazi
BUL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lugazi vs BUL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BUL | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lugazi | 21.5% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| BUL | 48.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.1% |
| No | 56.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | BUL win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.5% |
Lugazi vs BUL stats
Lugazi vs BUL head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | BUL | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Lugazi | BUL | Uganda Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.