Express
vs
UPDF
1 – 2 Full time
| 2′ | D. Talemwa | ||
| 8′ | D. Talemwa | ||
| 75′ | H. Wamala |
Express vs UPDF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Express vs UPDF
| Probability | Express | Draw | UPDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 36.8% | 20.5% |
| Market | 47.0% | 29.8% | 23.3% |
| Final | 45.9% | 31.5% | 22.6% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +1.8% | -0.7% |
Why Express
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.60.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Express and UPDF expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.60
Express and UPDF attack and defence ratings
Express
UPDF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Express vs UPDF: result vs prediction
Express 1 – 2 UPDF
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Express vs UPDF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Express | 45.9% | 2.18 | -1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Express | 45.9% |
| Draw | 31.5% | |
| UPDF | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.7% |
| No | 70.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Express win | 17.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.5% |
| 1-0 | 18.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Express vs UPDF stats
Express and UPDF recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Express and UPDF going into this match
Express record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Express vs UPDF head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | UPDF | Express | Uganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Express | UPDF | Uganda Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Express | UPDF | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-06 | UPDF | Express | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-02-27 | Express | UPDF | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-27 | UPDF | Express | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-11 | Express | UPDF | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-01 | UPDF | Express | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-14 | Express | UPDF | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-23 | UPDF | Express | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Express vs UPDF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 29.8%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.00 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.05 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.00 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 2.97 | 3.61 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 2.90 | 3.60 |