Police
vs
SC Villa
Garuda Lions Prediction: SC Villa
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Police vs SC Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Police vs SC Villa
| Probability | Police | Draw | SC Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.7% | 31.5% | 49.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 18.7% | 31.5% | 49.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why SC Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Police vs SC Villa match preview
In the upcoming Uganda Premier League match, Police faces SC Villa with a kickoff scheduled for October 14, 2026. According to our model, SC Villa holds a slight edge with a 39% probability of winning, compared to Police's 26% and a 35% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1 in favor of SC Villa, with a 16% likelihood. Expected goals for Police stand at 0.77, while SC Villa is anticipated to score 1.02.
Recent form shows Police with a mixed record of W-D-L-W-D-D, while SC Villa has performed strongly with D-W-W-W-D-W. In their last two encounters, both teams have one win each, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. Our confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Police and SC Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Police and SC Villa attack and defence ratings
Police
SC Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Police vs SC Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Villa | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 18.7% |
| Draw | 31.5% | |
| SC Villa | 49.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.6% |
| No | 62.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 50.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.5% |
| 0-0 | 14.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
Police vs SC Villa stats
Police vs SC Villa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Police | SC Villa | Uganda Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | SC Villa | Police | Uganda Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.