Police
vs
SC Villa
1 – 6 Full time
| 8′ | I. Kasinde | ||
| 13′ | J. Asiimwe | ||
| 45′ | F. Ssebuufu | ||
| 48′ | P. Kakande | ||
| 58′ | F. Ssebuufu | ||
| 81′ | B. Ikamba | ||
| 83′ | J. Sausa |
Police vs SC Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Police vs SC Villa
| Probability | Police | Draw | SC Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.4% | 31.2% | 50.4% |
| Market | 25.0% | 29.9% | 45.1% |
| Final | 23.3% | 30.3% | 46.4% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +0.3% | +1.3% |
Why SC Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Police and SC Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Police and SC Villa attack and defence ratings
Police
SC Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Police vs SC Villa: result vs prediction
Police 1 – 6 SC Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Police vs SC Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Villa | 46.4% | 2.15 | +1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 23.3% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| SC Villa | 46.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.6% |
| No | 62.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.5% |
| 0-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Police vs SC Villa stats
Police and SC Villa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Police and SC Villa going into this match
Police record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
SC Villa record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Police vs SC Villa head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Police | SC Villa | Uganda Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | SC Villa | Police | Uganda Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Police | SC Villa | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-12-13 | SC Villa | Police | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-02 | Police | SC Villa | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-29 | SC Villa | Police | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2021-05-19 | Police | SC Villa | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2021-03-06 | SC Villa | Police | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2020-02-03 | Police | SC Villa | Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Police vs SC Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 29.9%, away 45.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.72 | 2.94 | 1.99 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.05 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.10 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 3.46 | 2.96 | 2.01 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.00 |