SC Villa
vs
Mbarara City
Garuda Lions Prediction: SC Villa
2 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
SC Villa vs Mbarara City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SC Villa vs Mbarara City
| Probability | SC Villa | Draw | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79.0% | 15.7% | 5.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 79.0% | 15.7% | 5.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why SC Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
SC Villa vs Mbarara City match preview
SC Villa is heavily favored in their upcoming match against Mbarara City, with a 79% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring with a 16% likelihood. SC Villa's expected goals stand at 2.40, while Mbarara City is expected to score only 0.50. Recent form shows SC Villa with a strong record of W-D-W-W-W-D, contrasting with Mbarara City's struggles at W-L-D-D-L-L.
In their last two encounters, SC Villa has secured two victories over Mbarara City, with no draws or wins for the latter. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 55%, and there is a 37% chance that both teams will score. Despite the favorable statistics for SC Villa, the confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
SC Villa and Mbarara City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
SC Villa and Mbarara City attack and defence ratings
SC Villa
Mbarara City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
SC Villa vs Mbarara City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Villa | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.7% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Villa | 79.0% |
| Draw | 15.7% | |
| Mbarara City | 5.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.5% |
| No | 63.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win | 56.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 21.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.8% |
| 3-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-0 | 12.5% |
SC Villa vs Mbarara City stats
SC Villa and Mbarara City recent form
| SC Villa |
WDWWWD |
| Mbarara City |
WLDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
SC Villa and Mbarara City season so far
SC Villa record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mbarara City record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
SC Villa vs Mbarara City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Mbarara City | SC Villa | Uganda Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2026-01-28 | SC Villa | Mbarara City | Uganda Premier League | 6-1 |
| 2025-04-16 | Mbarara City | SC Villa | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-16 | SC Villa | Mbarara City | Premier League | 4-2 |
| 2024-03-30 | SC Villa | Mbarara City | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-25 | Mbarara City | SC Villa | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-19 | SC Villa | Mbarara City | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2021-11-30 | Mbarara City | SC Villa | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2021-04-24 | Mbarara City | SC Villa | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2020-12-09 | SC Villa | Mbarara City | Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.