Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Maroons
vs
Kataka
4 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | A. Eturude | ||
| 53′ | F. Amaku | ||
| 76′ | D. Ojok | ||
| 82′ | J. Nunda | ||
| 90′ | L. Ssenkubuge |
Maroons
62%
Draw
23%
Kataka
15%
Maroons vs Kataka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maroons vs Kataka
| Probability | Maroons | Draw | Kataka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.5% | 18.0% | 8.5% |
| Market | 58.7% | 24.8% | 16.5% |
| Final | 62.4% | 23.1% | 14.5% |
| Edge | +14.8% | -6.8% | -8.0% |
Why Maroons
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Maroons below the model: +14.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
59%
No goals
6%
Maroons and Kataka expected goals
Maroons
2.34
Kataka
0.70
Total expected goals: 3.04
Maroons and Kataka attack and defence ratings
Maroons
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Kataka
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
1.67 +67%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Maroons vs Kataka: result vs prediction
Maroons 4 – 1 Kataka
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maroons vs Kataka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 62.4% | 1.60 | +14.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 62.4% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Kataka | 14.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win | 51.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 26.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
Maroons vs Kataka stats
Maroons and Kataka recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maroons and Kataka going into this match
Maroons record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Kataka record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Maroons vs Kataka head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Maroons vs Kataka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.7%, draw 24.8%, away 16.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 3.62 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 3.65 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 3.62 | 5.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 3.66 | 5.44 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.30 | 5.80 |