Kataka
vs
Vipers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vipers
0 – 1 Predicted score · 20% model probability
Kataka vs Vipers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kataka vs Vipers
| Probability | Kataka | Draw | Vipers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.9% | 28.8% | 60.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 10.9% | 28.8% | 60.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vipers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Kataka vs Vipers match preview
Kataka faces Vipers in the Uganda Premier League with a kickoff scheduled for October 15, 2026. According to our model, Kataka has an 11% chance of winning, while Vipers holds a 61% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 20% frequency. Kataka's expected goals stand at 0.46, in contrast to Vipers' 1.44.
In terms of recent form, Kataka has recorded draws and losses, with a sequence of D-L-L-D. Conversely, Vipers has shown stronger performance with two wins, a draw, and a loss in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 30%, while the probability of both teams scoring is at 29%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kataka and Vipers expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.90
Kataka and Vipers attack and defence ratings
Kataka
Vipers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kataka vs Vipers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 89.1% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 10.9% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Vipers | 60.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.3% |
| No | 70.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 89.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.5% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 20.5% |
| 0-0 | 16.0% | |
| 0-2 | 15.4% |