Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Kataka
vs
Kitara
1 – 2 Full time
| 57′ | J. Kalema | ||
| 89′ | C. Asiki | ||
| 90′ | L. Ssenkubuge |
Kataka
24%
Draw
32%
Kitara
44%
Kataka vs Kitara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kataka vs Kitara
| Probability | Kataka | Draw | Kitara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.8% | 32.4% | 43.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.8% | 32.4% | 43.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kitara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
61%
3+ goals
33%
No goals
14%
Kataka and Kitara expected goals
Kataka
0.82
Kitara
1.21
Total expected goals: 2.03
Kataka and Kitara attack and defence ratings
Kataka
Attack
0.78 -22%
Defence
1.20 +20%
Kitara
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kataka vs Kitara: result vs prediction
Kataka 1 – 2 Kitara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kataka vs Kitara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 23.8% |
| Draw | 32.4% | |
| Kitara | 43.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.6% |
| No | 59.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |