Kataka
vs
Kitara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kitara
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Kataka vs Kitara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kataka vs Kitara
| Probability | Kataka | Draw | Kitara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.9% | 32.4% | 43.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.9% | 32.4% | 43.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kitara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Kataka vs Kitara match preview
Kataka will face Kitara in the Uganda Premier League on October 10, 2026. The model gives Kataka a 23% chance of winning, while Kitara is favored at 45%, with a 31% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 14%. Expected goals suggest Kataka will score 0.84, compared to Kitara's 1.28.
In terms of recent form, Kataka has struggled with two consecutive losses and one draw, while Kitara has shown more resilience, going without defeat in their last six matches, including three wins and three draws. The probabilities indicate a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kataka and Kitara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Kataka and Kitara attack and defence ratings
Kataka
Kitara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kataka vs Kitara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 23.9% |
| Draw | 32.4% | |
| Kitara | 43.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.5% |
| No | 59.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |