Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Ntugasaze
vs
KCCA
0 – 2 Full time
| 37′ | H. Achayi | ||
| 82′ | E. Anyama |
Ntugasaze
19%
Draw
32%
KCCA
49%
Ntugasaze vs KCCA overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ntugasaze vs KCCA
| Probability | Ntugasaze | Draw | KCCA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.0% | 32.0% | 49.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 19.0% | 32.0% | 49.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why KCCA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
59%
3+ goals
31%
No goals
15%
Ntugasaze and KCCA expected goals
Ntugasaze
0.69
KCCA
1.26
Total expected goals: 1.95
Ntugasaze and KCCA attack and defence ratings
Ntugasaze
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.53 +53%
KCCA
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ntugasaze vs KCCA: result vs prediction
Ntugasaze 0 – 2 KCCA
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ntugasaze vs KCCA markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ntugasaze | 19.0% |
| Draw | 32.0% | |
| KCCA | 49.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.8% |
| No | 63.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.7% |
| 0-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Ntugasaze vs KCCA stats
Ntugasaze and KCCA recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Ntugasaze and KCCA going into this match
Ntugasaze record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
KCCA record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.