Ntugasaze
vs
KCCA
Garuda Lions Prediction: KCCA
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Ntugasaze vs KCCA overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ntugasaze vs KCCA
| Probability | Ntugasaze | Draw | KCCA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.8% | 31.2% | 49.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 19.8% | 31.2% | 49.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why KCCA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Ntugasaze vs KCCA match preview
In the upcoming Uganda Premier League match, Ntugasaze will face KCCA on October 13, 2026. The model assigns a 16% probability for a Ntugasaze victory, while KCCA is favored with a 56% chance of winning. The likelihood of a draw stands at 28%. The most probable scoreline is 0-1 in favor of KCCA, with a 15% chance of occurring.
Recent form indicates a challenging period for Ntugasaze, who have lost their last four matches. In contrast, KCCA's recent results show a mix of performances, including two wins and two draws in their last six games. Expected goals suggest Ntugasaze will struggle offensively, with a projection of 0.71, while KCCA is expected to score 1.52 goals. The probabilities reflect a model-based analysis with a confidence grade of C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ntugasaze and KCCA expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.95
Ntugasaze and KCCA attack and defence ratings
Ntugasaze
KCCA
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ntugasaze vs KCCA markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ntugasaze | 19.8% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| KCCA | 49.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.4% |
| No | 60.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |