Mbarara City
vs
Blacks Power
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mbarara City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Mbarara City vs Blacks Power overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mbarara City vs Blacks Power
| Probability | Mbarara City | Draw | Blacks Power |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.1% | 33.4% | 25.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.1% | 33.4% | 25.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mbarara City vs Blacks Power match preview
Mbarara City faces Blacks Power in the Uganda Premier League, with Mbarara City holding a 41% probability of winning compared to 26% for Blacks Power. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-0, occurring at a 15% probability. Mbarara City has an expected goals figure of 1.12, while Blacks Power sits at 0.83.
In terms of recent form, Mbarara City has struggled with a record of L-D-D-L-L-W, whereas Blacks Power has shown improvement with W-W-W after two initial losses. The model indicates a 33% chance of a draw and a 39% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mbarara City and Blacks Power expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Mbarara City and Blacks Power attack and defence ratings
Mbarara City
Blacks Power
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mbarara City vs Blacks Power markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 41.1% |
| Draw | 33.4% | |
| Blacks Power | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.4% |
| No | 60.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mbarara City win | 17.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.5% |
| 1-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Mbarara City vs Blacks Power stats
Mbarara City and Blacks Power recent form
| Mbarara City |
LDDLLW |
| Blacks Power |
LLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.