NEC
vs
Ntugasaze
Garuda Lions Prediction: NEC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
NEC vs Ntugasaze overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEC vs Ntugasaze
| Probability | NEC | Draw | Ntugasaze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79.4% | 16.1% | 4.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 79.4% | 16.1% | 4.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why NEC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.40.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
NEC vs Ntugasaze match preview
NEC enters the match against Ntugasaze with a strong probability of winning at 79%, while Ntugasaze's chances stand at just 4%. The expected goals for NEC are 2.26, compared to a mere 0.40 for Ntugasaze, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output. Recent form also favors NEC, who have recorded three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Ntugasaze has struggled, losing five of their last six encounters.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with an 18% probability. There is a 50% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring is estimated at 30%. This data suggests a dominant performance from NEC, reflecting their current form and statistical advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NEC and Ntugasaze expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
NEC and Ntugasaze attack and defence ratings
NEC
Ntugasaze
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEC vs Ntugasaze markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 79.4% |
| Draw | 16.1% | |
| Ntugasaze | 4.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.2% |
| No | 69.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 20.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win | 55.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 20.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 17.8% |
| 1-0 | 15.1% | |
| 3-0 | 13.5% |
NEC vs Ntugasaze stats
NEC and Ntugasaze recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NEC and Ntugasaze season so far
NEC record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Ntugasaze record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.