UPDF
vs
URA
Garuda Lions Prediction: UPDF
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
UPDF vs URA overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UPDF vs URA
| Probability | UPDF | Draw | URA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.6% | 34.7% | 23.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.6% | 34.7% | 23.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why UPDF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.74.
UPDF vs URA match preview
UPDF and URA are set to clash in the Uganda Premier League, with UPDF holding a 42% probability of winning compared to URA's 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is a narrow 1-0 victory for UPDF, occurring with a 16% likelihood. In terms of expected goals, UPDF is forecasted to score 1.07, while URA is projected to net 0.74.
Recent form shows UPDF with mixed results, recording one win in their last five matches, while URA has managed to secure only one win in their last six outings. Historically, in their last two encounters, UPDF has not won, with URA claiming one victory and the teams sharing one draw. The probabilities indicate a competitive match, with a 35% chance of a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UPDF and URA expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.81
UPDF and URA attack and defence ratings
UPDF
URA
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
UPDF vs URA markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 41.6% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 41.6% |
| Draw | 34.7% | |
| URA | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.6% |
| No | 64.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | UPDF win | 17.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 58.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.7% |
| 1-0 | 16.2% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
UPDF vs URA stats
UPDF and URA recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UPDF and URA season so far
UPDF record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
URA record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
UPDF vs URA head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | UPDF | URA | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-29 | URA | UPDF | Uganda Premier League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.