Express
vs
Kataka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Express
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Express vs Kataka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Express vs Kataka
| Probability | Express | Draw | Kataka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.8% | 22.4% | 10.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 66.8% | 22.4% | 10.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Express
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Express vs Kataka match preview
Express enters this match against Kataka with a strong probability of winning at 67%, while Kataka's chances stand at 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with a 14% likelihood. Express has an expected goals figure of 1.93, significantly higher than Kataka's 0.65, indicating a potential dominance in offensive play.
In terms of recent form, Express has recorded a mixed bag with a sequence of results including two draws and two losses in their last six matches. Kataka, on the other hand, has struggled, suffering five consecutive losses followed by a draw. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, but Express's recent performance and statistical advantages position them favorably.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Express and Kataka expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Express and Kataka attack and defence ratings
Express
Kataka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Express vs Kataka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Express | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Express win | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Express | 66.8% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Kataka | 10.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.0% |
| No | 58.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Express win | 41.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 33.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.6% | |
| 1-1 | 10.5% |
Express vs Kataka stats
Express and Kataka recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Express and Kataka season so far
Express record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Kataka record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.