Ntugasaze
vs
Express
Garuda Lions Prediction: Express
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ntugasaze vs Express overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ntugasaze vs Express
| Probability | Ntugasaze | Draw | Express |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.1% | 35.8% | 37.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.1% | 35.8% | 37.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Ntugasaze vs Express match preview
In the upcoming Uganda Premier League match, Ntugasaze faces Express with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for a win are 27% for Ntugasaze, 36% for a draw, and 37% for Express. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance of occurring. Expected goals are estimated at 0.79 for Ntugasaze and 0.97 for Express, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.
Recent form shows Ntugasaze struggling with five losses in their last six matches, while Express has recorded one win and four draws in their last five outings. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 26%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 35%. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ntugasaze and Express expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.76
Ntugasaze and Express attack and defence ratings
Ntugasaze
Express
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ntugasaze vs Express markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Express | 37.1% | 2.69 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ntugasaze | 27.1% |
| Draw | 35.8% | |
| Express | 37.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.2% |
| No | 64.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Express win | 14.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.5% |
| 0-1 | 15.4% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Ntugasaze vs Express stats
Ntugasaze and Express recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ntugasaze and Express season so far
Ntugasaze record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Express record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.