Maroons
vs
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Maroons
2 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.50.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz
| Probability | Maroons | Draw | Kigezi HomeBoyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.2% | 19.0% | 6.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 74.2% | 19.0% | 6.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Maroons
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz match preview
Maroons enter this match against Kigezi HomeBoyz with a strong probability of winning at 74%, while Kigezi HomeBoyz has a mere 7% chance. The expected goals for Maroons stand at 2.11, significantly higher than Kigezi HomeBoyz's 0.50. Recent form shows Maroons with a mixed record of W-D-W-L-L-W, while Kigezi HomeBoyz struggles with five consecutive losses followed by a draw.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Maroons, with a 16% probability. Additionally, there is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, while both teams scoring is forecasted at 36%. Overall, Maroons appear to be in a stronger position going into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maroons and Kigezi HomeBoyz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Maroons and Kigezi HomeBoyz attack and defence ratings
Maroons
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.2% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 74.2% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.5% |
| No | 64.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win | 49.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 25.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 16.3% |
| 1-0 | 14.7% | |
| 3-0 | 11.5% |
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz stats
Maroons and Kigezi HomeBoyz recent form
| Maroons |
WDWLLW |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maroons and Kigezi HomeBoyz season so far
Maroons record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Kigezi HomeBoyz record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.