Mbarara City
vs
KCCA
Garuda Lions Prediction: KCCA
0 – 1 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.02 vs 0.61.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mbarara City vs KCCA overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mbarara City vs KCCA
| Probability | Mbarara City | Draw | KCCA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.3% | 36.2% | 43.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.3% | 36.2% | 43.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why KCCA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.02 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Mbarara City vs KCCA match preview
Mbarara City faces KCCA in the Uganda Premier League with KCCA holding a slight edge in the probabilities, at 43% for a win compared to Mbarara City's 20%. The expected goals suggest a challenging match for Mbarara City, with an expected score of 0.61 compared to KCCA's 1.02. Recent form shows Mbarara City with a mixed record of L-W-L-D-D-L, while KCCA has been more consistent with W-W-W-D-L-L.
In their last two encounters, KCCA has secured victories in both matches against Mbarara City, indicating a strong historical advantage. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a 19% probability. Additionally, the chances of both teams scoring stand at 31%, while the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 23%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mbarara City and KCCA expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.63
Mbarara City and KCCA attack and defence ratings
Mbarara City
KCCA
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mbarara City vs KCCA markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.7% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 20.3% |
| Draw | 36.2% | |
| KCCA | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.5% |
| No | 69.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 63.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.7% |
| 0-1 | 18.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Mbarara City vs KCCA stats
Mbarara City and KCCA recent form
| Mbarara City |
LWLDDL |
| KCCA |
WWWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mbarara City and KCCA season so far
Mbarara City record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
KCCA record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Mbarara City vs KCCA head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | KCCA | Mbarara City | Uganda Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Mbarara City | KCCA | Uganda Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.