Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Kigezi HomeBoyz
vs
Mbarara City
2 – 1 Full time
| 54′ | J. Jemba | ||
| 86′ | B. Aheebwa | ||
| 90′ | Kigezi HomeBoyz |
Kigezi HomeBoyz
28%
Draw
35%
Mbarara City
37%
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City
| Probability | Kigezi HomeBoyz | Draw | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.5% | 35.3% | 37.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.5% | 35.3% | 37.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mbarara City
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
82%
2+ goals
55%
3+ goals
27%
No goals
18%
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Mbarara City expected goals
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0.81
Mbarara City
0.99
Total expected goals: 1.81
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Mbarara City attack and defence ratings
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Attack
0.58 -42%
Defence
1.39 +39%
Mbarara City
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City: result vs prediction
Kigezi HomeBoyz 2 – 1 Mbarara City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 37.2% | 2.69 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 27.5% |
| Draw | 35.3% | |
| Mbarara City | 37.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.4% |
| No | 63.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mbarara City win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 62.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.8% |
| 0-1 | 15.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.6% |
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City stats
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Mbarara City recent form
| Kigezi HomeBoyz |
LLLLLD |
| Mbarara City |
LWLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Mbarara City going into this match
Kigezi HomeBoyz record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Mbarara City record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.