Vipers
vs
Lugazi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vipers
1 – 0 Predicted score · 22% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.28.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Vipers vs Lugazi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vipers vs Lugazi
| Probability | Vipers | Draw | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.2% | 20.5% | 4.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 75.2% | 20.5% | 4.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vipers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Vipers vs Lugazi match preview
Vipers enter the match against Lugazi with a strong probability of winning at 75%, while Lugazi has just a 4% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 22% likelihood. Vipers have shown solid recent form with two wins in their last five matches, while Lugazi has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
In terms of expected goals, Vipers are forecasted to score 1.83, significantly higher than Lugazi's expected 0.28. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 35%, and both teams scoring is projected at 21%. Historically, Vipers have dominated their recent encounters with Lugazi, winning both of their last two meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vipers and Lugazi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
Vipers and Lugazi attack and defence ratings
Vipers
Lugazi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vipers vs Lugazi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.7% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 75.2% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Lugazi | 4.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 21.0% |
| No | 79.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win | 47.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.8% | |
| Loss | 24.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 21.7% |
| 2-0 | 20.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.8% |
Vipers vs Lugazi stats
Vipers and Lugazi recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vipers and Lugazi season so far
Vipers record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Lugazi record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Vipers vs Lugazi head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Vipers | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Lugazi | Vipers | Uganda Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.