Mbarara City
vs
Lugazi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mbarara City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.62.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mbarara City vs Lugazi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mbarara City vs Lugazi
| Probability | Mbarara City | Draw | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 33.5% | 18.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.1% | 33.5% | 18.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mbarara City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Mbarara City vs Lugazi match preview
Mbarara City is set to face Lugazi in the Uganda Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for November 18, 2026. According to our model, Mbarara City has a 48% chance of winning, while a draw is at 34% and Lugazi at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Mbarara City, with an 18% probability. Our expected goals forecast indicates Mbarara City at 1.17 and Lugazi at 0.62.
In terms of recent form, Mbarara City has recorded two losses, one win, and two more losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Lugazi has struggled with three losses, two draws, and no wins in their recent games. The head-to-head record shows Mbarara City with one win and one draw against Lugazi, who has yet to secure a victory in their previous encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mbarara City and Lugazi expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.80
Mbarara City and Lugazi attack and defence ratings
Mbarara City
Lugazi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mbarara City vs Lugazi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 48.1% |
| Draw | 33.5% | |
| Lugazi | 18.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.2% |
| No | 66.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mbarara City win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.3% |
| 0-0 | 17.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Mbarara City vs Lugazi stats
Mbarara City and Lugazi recent form
| Mbarara City |
LLWLWL |
| Lugazi |
LLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mbarara City and Lugazi season so far
Mbarara City record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Lugazi record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Mbarara City vs Lugazi head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Lugazi | Mbarara City | Uganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Mbarara City | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.