Kataka
vs
URA
Garuda Lions Prediction: URA
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kataka vs URA overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kataka vs URA
| Probability | Kataka | Draw | URA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 27.6% | 44.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.9% | 27.6% | 44.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why URA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Kataka vs URA match preview
Kataka faces URA in the Uganda Premier League with both teams showing mixed recent form. Kataka's last six matches resulted in two draws and four losses, while URA has one win, two draws, and three losses in their recent outings. According to our model, Kataka has a 28% chance of winning, with a draw also at 28%, while URA holds a 44% probability of victory.
The expected goals for Kataka stand at 1.18, compared to URA's 1.54, suggesting a competitive match. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of URA, with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kataka and URA expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Kataka and URA attack and defence ratings
Kataka
URA
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kataka vs URA markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | URA | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 27.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| URA | 44.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | URA win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 9.0% |
Kataka vs URA stats
Kataka and URA recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kataka and URA season so far
Kataka record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
URA record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.