NEC
vs
UPDF
Garuda Lions Prediction: NEC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.50.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
NEC vs UPDF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEC vs UPDF
| Probability | NEC | Draw | UPDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.2% | 21.7% | 8.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 70.2% | 21.7% | 8.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why NEC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
NEC vs UPDF match preview
NEC faces UPDF in the Uganda Premier League with a strong probability of victory for the home side, sitting at 70%. The expected goals indicate a significant advantage for NEC, projected at 1.90 compared to UPDF's 0.50. Recent form shows NEC has been performing well, with three wins in their last five matches, while UPDF has struggled, recording only two wins in their last six.
Historically, NEC has the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning once and drawing once in the last two meetings, with UPDF yet to secure a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 16% probability. The chances of over 2.5 goals are at 43%, while both teams scoring stands at 35%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NEC and UPDF expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
NEC and UPDF attack and defence ratings
NEC
UPDF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEC vs UPDF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.9% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 70.2% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| UPDF | 8.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.5% |
| No | 65.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win | 44.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 29.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.3% |
| 2-0 | 16.3% | |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
NEC vs UPDF stats
NEC and UPDF recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NEC and UPDF season so far
NEC record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
UPDF record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
NEC vs UPDF head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | NEC | UPDF | Uganda Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-16 | UPDF | NEC | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.