UPDF
vs
Kitara
Garuda Lions Prediction: UPDF
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
UPDF vs Kitara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UPDF vs Kitara
| Probability | UPDF | Draw | Kitara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 31.0% | 28.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.0% | 31.0% | 28.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
UPDF vs Kitara match preview
UPDF faces Kitara in the Uganda Premier League with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, UPDF has a 41% probability of winning, while Kitara sits at 28%, and a draw is estimated at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of UPDF, with a 12% likelihood. The expected goals for UPDF are 1.26, compared to Kitara's 1.00, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, UPDF has recorded one win in their last six matches (L-W-W-D-L-D), while Kitara has shown better consistency with three wins in their last six (L-L-W-W-D-W). Historically, in their last two encounters, UPDF has not secured a win, with Kitara winning once and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UPDF and Kitara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
UPDF and Kitara attack and defence ratings
UPDF
Kitara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
UPDF vs Kitara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 41.0% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Kitara | 28.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | UPDF win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
UPDF vs Kitara stats
UPDF and Kitara recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UPDF and Kitara season so far
UPDF record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
UPDF vs Kitara head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | UPDF | Kitara | Uganda Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Kitara | UPDF | Uganda Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.