Police
vs
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Police
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz
| Probability | Police | Draw | Kigezi HomeBoyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 30.2% | 18.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.1% | 30.2% | 18.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Police
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz match preview
Police will face Kigezi HomeBoyz in the Uganda Premier League with a forecasted probability of 51% for a Police victory, while a draw stands at 30% and Kigezi HomeBoyz at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 15% probability. Expected goals for Police are at 1.38, compared to Kigezi HomeBoyz's 0.73, suggesting a stronger offensive performance from the home team.
In terms of recent form, Police has recorded results of L-L-W-D-L-W, while Kigezi HomeBoyz has struggled with L-L-L-D-L in their last five matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 35%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 40%. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Police and Kigezi HomeBoyz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Police and Kigezi HomeBoyz attack and defence ratings
Police
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 51.1% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | |
| 0-0 | 13.3% |
Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz stats
Police and Kigezi HomeBoyz recent form
| Police |
LLWDLW |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz |
LLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Police and Kigezi HomeBoyz season so far
Police record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Kigezi HomeBoyz record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.