Mbarara City
vs
Vipers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vipers
0 – 1 Predicted score · 20% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.45.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mbarara City vs Vipers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mbarara City vs Vipers
| Probability | Mbarara City | Draw | Vipers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9.5% | 26.8% | 63.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 9.5% | 26.8% | 63.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vipers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Mbarara City vs Vipers match preview
Mbarara City faces Vipers in the Uganda Premier League with a significant disparity in expectations. The model assigns Mbarara City an 11% chance of winning, while Vipers are favored at 62%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with Mbarara City expected to generate only 0.52 expected goals compared to Vipers' 1.55.
In terms of recent form, Mbarara City has struggled with a record of one win and four losses in their last six matches, while Vipers remain more consistent with three wins and three draws in the same timeframe. Historically, Vipers have dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Mbarara City. The model indicates a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mbarara City and Vipers expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Mbarara City and Vipers attack and defence ratings
Mbarara City
Vipers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mbarara City vs Vipers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.5% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 36.3% | 2.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 9.5% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Vipers | 63.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.2% |
| No | 70.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win | 35.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.3% | |
| Loss | 36.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 20.2% |
| 0-2 | 16.3% | |
| 0-0 | 14.7% |
Mbarara City vs Vipers stats
Mbarara City and Vipers recent form
| Mbarara City |
LWLDDL |
| Vipers |
DWDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mbarara City and Vipers season so far
Mbarara City record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
Vipers record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Mbarara City vs Vipers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Mbarara City | Vipers | Uganda Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-06 | Vipers | Mbarara City | Uganda Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Vipers | Mbarara City | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-29 | Mbarara City | Vipers | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-05-18 | Vipers | Mbarara City | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-03 | Mbarara City | Vipers | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-05 | Vipers | Mbarara City | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2021-11-19 | Mbarara City | Vipers | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2021-05-18 | Vipers | Mbarara City | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2021-03-06 | Mbarara City | Vipers | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.