Garuda Lions
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Uganda Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

UPDF vs BUL

0 – 2 Full time

58′D. Byabacwezi
75′D. Batholomew

Nakivubo Stadium, Kampala

UPDF 28%
Draw 31%
BUL 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

UPDF vs BUL overview

Garuda Lions analysis: UPDF vs BUL

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUPDFDrawBUL
Model34.9%33.5%31.6%
Market26.1%30.6%43.3%
Final28.3%31.3%40.4%
Edge+2.2%+0.7%-2.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why BUL

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

UPDF ↓ / BUL → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 12% 1 13% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

UPDF and BUL expected goals

UPDF 1.03
BUL 0.97

Total expected goals: 2.01

UPDF and BUL attack and defence ratings

UPDF

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.92 -8%

BUL

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

UPDF vs BUL: result vs prediction

UPDF 0 – 2 BUL

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Uganda Premier League

Before and after this match

UPDF vs BUL markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 BUL 40.4% 2.47 -2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 71.7% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.4% 1.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2UPDF28.3%
Draw31.3%
BUL40.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%
Both teams to scoreYes41.4%
No58.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.6%
12 (either side)68.7%
X2 (draw or away)71.7%
Handicap -1BUL win12.1%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss68.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.9%
0-014.8%
1-012.6%

UPDF vs BUL stats

UPDF and BUL recent form

newest first
UPDF WWDLDL
BUL DWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

UPDF and BUL going into this match

league record before kick-off

UPDF record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

BUL record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

UPDF vs BUL head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4UPDF wins 2Draws 4BUL wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-21BULUPDFUganda Premier League2-5
2026-01-30UPDFBULUganda Premier League0-1
2025-05-24UPDFBULPremier League2-3
2024-12-04BULUPDFPremier League0-2
2024-03-12BULUPDFPremier League0-1
2023-11-09UPDFBULPremier League2-0
2023-02-21UPDFBULPremier League1-1
2022-10-08BULUPDFPremier League3-1
2022-03-01BULUPDFPremier League5-1
2021-12-22UPDFBULPremier League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

UPDF vs BUL odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.1%, draw 30.6%, away 43.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.54 2.93 2.06
Bet365 4.00 3.00 1.90
BetVictor 3.00 2.80 1.95
Marathonbet 3.44 2.93 2.04
Pinnacle 3.37 2.88 2.08
William Hill 3.30 2.88 2.10

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.