UPDF
vs
BUL
Garuda Lions Prediction: BUL
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
UPDF vs BUL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UPDF vs BUL
| Probability | UPDF | Draw | BUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 33.0% | 34.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.6% | 33.0% | 34.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why BUL
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
UPDF vs BUL match preview
In the upcoming Uganda Premier League match, UPDF faces BUL with both teams showing contrasting recent forms. UPDF's last five results include one win, one draw, and three losses, while BUL has been more successful, securing four wins and one draw in their last six matches. The model gives UPDF a 33% chance of winning, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 35% chance for BUL to take the victory.
The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1 in favor of BUL, occurring at a probability of 12%. Both teams are expected to score with a likelihood of 43%, and the chances of over 2.5 goals are at 34%. Expected goals for UPDF stand at 1.01, while BUL is slightly ahead with 1.05. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows an even split, with both teams claiming four wins each and two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UPDF and BUL expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
UPDF and BUL attack and defence ratings
UPDF
BUL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
UPDF vs BUL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BUL | 34.4% | 2.91 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 32.6% |
| Draw | 33.0% | |
| BUL | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | BUL win | 14.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 65.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | |
| 0-1 | 12.0% |
UPDF vs BUL stats
UPDF vs BUL head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | BUL | UPDF | Uganda Premier League | 2-5 |
| 2026-01-30 | UPDF | BUL | Uganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-24 | UPDF | BUL | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2024-12-04 | BUL | UPDF | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-12 | BUL | UPDF | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-09 | UPDF | BUL | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-21 | UPDF | BUL | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-08 | BUL | UPDF | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2022-03-01 | BUL | UPDF | Premier League | 5-1 |
| 2021-12-22 | UPDF | BUL | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.