Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Kataka
vs
SC Villa
1 – 1 Full time
| 51′ | A. Sentamu | ||
| 71′ | N. Yiga |
Kataka
12%
Draw
26%
SC Villa
62%
Kataka vs SC Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kataka vs SC Villa
| Probability | Kataka | Draw | SC Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.6% | 26.3% | 62.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 11.6% | 26.3% | 62.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why SC Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
37%
No goals
12%
Kataka and SC Villa expected goals
Kataka
0.56
SC Villa
1.62
Total expected goals: 2.18
Kataka and SC Villa attack and defence ratings
Kataka
Attack
0.74 -26%
Defence
1.24 +24%
SC Villa
Attack
1.58 +58%
Defence
0.60 -40%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kataka vs SC Villa: result vs prediction
Kataka 1 – 1 SC Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kataka vs SC Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Villa | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 11.6% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| SC Villa | 62.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.6% |
| No | 64.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 37.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.2% |
| 0-2 | 14.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |