Kitara
vs
Ntugasaze
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kitara
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Kitara vs Ntugasaze overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kitara vs Ntugasaze
| Probability | Kitara | Draw | Ntugasaze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.1% | 17.6% | 7.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 75.1% | 17.6% | 7.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kitara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Kitara vs Ntugasaze match preview
Kitara enters the match against Ntugasaze with a strong probability of winning at 78%, while Ntugasaze has just a 6% chance of victory. The expected goals for Kitara stand at 2.36, compared to Ntugasaze's 0.53, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. Recent form further supports this, as Kitara has recorded a series of positive results with four wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Ntugasaze has struggled, losing five of their last six.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with a 16% probability. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, although both teams to score is less likely at 38%. This analysis suggests that Kitara is favored to control the game and capitalize on their scoring opportunities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kitara and Ntugasaze expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Kitara and Ntugasaze attack and defence ratings
Kitara
Ntugasaze
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kitara vs Ntugasaze markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 75.1% |
| Draw | 17.6% | |
| Ntugasaze | 7.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win | 52.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 24.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 3-0 | 11.1% |
Kitara vs Ntugasaze stats
Kitara and Ntugasaze recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kitara and Ntugasaze season so far
Ntugasaze record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.