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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 16

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps

3 – 1 Full time

9′Jonathan Bamba
19′Philip Zinckernagel
45′Aleksa CvetkovicThomas Müller
45′Anton SaletrosMauricio Pineda
50′Philip Zinckernagel
55′Jonathan Dean
57′Emmanuel SabbiBruno Caicedo
58′Cheikh SabalyYadaly Diaby
61′Tate Johnson
73′Mathías Laborda
73′Tate JohnsonSam Adekugbe
76′Philip ZinckernagelPuso Dithejane
76′Jonathan BambaRobert Lewandowski
88′Maren Haile-Selassie
89′Oliver Love LarrazRayan Elloumi
90′Johan Arath GomezDavid Poreba

Soldier Field, ChicagoReferee: Serhiy Boiko

Chicago Fire 32%
Draw 24%
Vancouver Whitecaps 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 15
7 Shots on target 2
48 Possession % 52
2 Corners 8
8 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 5
1 Saves 3
357 Accurate passes 370

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChicago FireDrawVancouver Whitecaps
Model30.9%25.2%44.0%
Market32.6%24.2%43.2%
Final32.1%24.5%43.4%
Edge-1.7%+0.9%+0.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Vancouver Whitecaps

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.45.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chicago Fire ↓ / Vancouver Whit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 11% 9% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps expected goals

Chicago Fire 1.45
Vancouver Whitecaps 1.76

Total expected goals: 3.21

Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps attack and defence ratings

Chicago Fire

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Vancouver Whitecaps

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps: result vs prediction

Chicago Fire 3 – 1 Vancouver Whitecaps

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vancouver Whitecaps 43.4% 2.30 +0.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.2% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.4% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.5% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.0% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chicago Fire32.1%
Draw24.5%
Vancouver Whitecaps43.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%
Both teams to scoreYes64.4%
No35.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.6%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)67.9%
Handicap -1Vancouver Whitecaps win24.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss56.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
1-29.1%
2-17.5%

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps stats

Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps recent form

newest first
Chicago Fire WLLDDD
Vancouver Whitecaps DWLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chicago Fire record

  • They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vancouver Whitecaps record

  • They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Chicago Fire wins 1Draws 5Vancouver Whitecaps wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-03-23Vancouver WhitecapsChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-3
2023-08-31Chicago FireVancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer0-1
2022-07-24Vancouver WhitecapsChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-3
2021-04-10Vancouver WhitecapsChicago FireFriendlies Clubs3-2
2020-07-23Chicago FireVancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer0-2
2019-04-13Chicago FireVancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer1-1
2018-07-08Vancouver WhitecapsChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-2
2017-07-01Chicago FireVancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer4-0
2016-05-12Vancouver WhitecapsChicago FireMajor League Soccer2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 24.2%, away 43.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.90 4.00 2.20
BetVictor 2.90 3.90 2.15
Betano 2.92 3.90 2.32
Betfair 2.88 4.00 2.20
Marathonbet 2.95 3.75 2.13
Pinnacle 3.10 3.90 2.17
SBO 2.65 3.48 2.25
William Hill 2.80 3.50 2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▼ -0.43
X 3.90 ▼ -0.10
2 2.19 ▲ +0.28

28 snapshots recorded, from .