Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Charlotte
vs
Chicago Fire
0 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | Sergio Oregel | ||
| 34′ | Djibril Diani | ||
| 38′ | Allan Saint-Maximin | ||
| 49′ | Archie GoodwinTyger Smalls | ||
| 58′ | Johan Arath Gomez | ||
| 70′ | Djibril DianiDavid Schnegg | ||
| 70′ | Luca De La TorreBrandt Bronico | ||
| 74′ | Pep Biel | ||
| 75′ | Leonardo BarrosoAndrew Gutman | ||
| 75′ | Sergio OregelMauricio Pineda | ||
| 80′ | Jonathan BambaDavid Poreba | ||
| 80′ | Mbekezeli MbokaziSam Rogers | ||
| 81′ | David Poreba | ||
| 81′ | Will ClearyNathan Byrne | ||
| 81′ | Harry ToffoloNathan Richmond | ||
| 82′ | Ashley Westwood | ||
| 90′ | Tim Ream | ||
| 90′ | Tim Ream |
Charlotte
49%
Draw
23%
Chicago Fire
28%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 8 | Saves | 2 |
| 287 | Accurate passes | 464 |
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
| Probability | Charlotte | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.1% | 19.3% | 14.6% |
| Market | 43.5% | 24.5% | 32.0% |
| Final | 49.2% | 23.2% | 27.7% |
| Edge | +22.6% | -5.2% | -17.5% |
Why Charlotte
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Charlotte below the model: +22.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Charlotte and Chicago Fire expected goals
Charlotte
2.44
Chicago Fire
1.09
Total expected goals: 3.53
Charlotte and Chicago Fire attack and defence ratings
Charlotte
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Chicago Fire
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
1.16 +16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: result vs prediction
Charlotte 0 – 1 Chicago Fire
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC
- Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC — team news & stats
- CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati
- Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City — match page
- Nashville SC vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Austin vs San Diego
Before and after this match
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 49.2% | 2.03 | +22.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Charlotte win | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 49.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Chicago Fire | 27.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlotte win | 45.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 33.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | |
| 1-1 | 8.6% |
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire stats
Charlotte and Chicago Fire recent form
| Charlotte |
WDWDWW |
| Chicago Fire |
LLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charlotte and Chicago Fire going into this match
Charlotte record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
5Charlotte wins
0Draws
4Chicago Fire wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Chicago Fire | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Chicago Fire | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-17 | Charlotte | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-4 |
| 2024-10-02 | Charlotte | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
| 2024-05-16 | Chicago Fire | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Chicago Fire | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2023-05-17 | Charlotte | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2022-09-18 | Chicago Fire | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2022-08-06 | Charlotte | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.5%, draw 24.5%, away 32.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.95 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.84 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 4.02 | 3.06 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.55 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.15 ▲ +0.10
X
3.82 ▼ -0.02
2
2.92 ▼ -0.18
18 snapshots recorded, from .