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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 27

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

2 – 0 Full time

16′Hany Mukhtar
43′Hany Mukhtar
45′Lewis MorganAlonso
63′Nickseon GomisKobe Franklin
71′Elias SaadShakur Mohammed
73′Dániel SallóiEmilio Aristizábal
73′Jonathan OsorioAlejandro Piedrahita Díaz
78′Cristian EspinozaAlex Muyl
81′Sam Surridge
86′Edvard Sandvik TagsethBryan Acosta
87′Andy Najarjosh bauer
87′Theo CorbeanuDerrick Etienne Jr.

Geodis Park, NashvilleReferee: Ramy Touchan

Nashville SC 68%
Draw 19%
Toronto FC 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

23 Shots 11
11 Shots on target 3
62 Possession % 38
9 Corners 3
12 Fouls 9
5 Offsides 0
3 Saves 9
442 Accurate passes 227

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNashville SCDrawToronto FC
Model71.5%17.5%11.0%
Market67.0%19.0%14.0%
Final68.1%18.7%13.2%
Edge+4.5%-1.5%-3.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Nashville SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Nashville SC below the model: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nashville SC ↓ / Toronto FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 8% 2 10% 9% 3 8% 8% 4+ 10% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Nashville SC and Toronto FC expected goals

Nashville SC 2.56
Toronto FC 0.94

Total expected goals: 3.50

Nashville SC and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings

Nashville SC

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Toronto FC

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC: result vs prediction

Nashville SC 2 – 0 Toronto FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nashville SC 68.1% 1.47 +4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.1% 1.75 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.8% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Nashville SC win 50.6% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nashville SC68.1%
Draw18.7%
Toronto FC13.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%
Both teams to scoreYes57.1%
No42.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.8%
12 (either side)81.3%
X2 (draw or away)31.9%
Handicap -1Nashville SC win50.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss28.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.9%
2-19.3%
3-08.4%

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC stats

Nashville SC and Toronto FC recent form

newest first
Nashville SC WDLDWW
Toronto FC LLWDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nashville SC and Toronto FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Nashville SC record

  • They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Toronto FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Nashville SC wins 3Draws 3Toronto FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-09Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-07-20Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer1-0
2025-05-24Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-06-19Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-05-16Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2023-06-10Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-04-09Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer0-0
2022-08-07Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer3-4
2021-09-18Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer2-1
2021-08-01Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 67.0%, draw 19.0%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.42 5.00 7.00
BetVictor 1.40 4.80 7.00
Betano 1.47 5.10 6.80
Betfair 1.36 5.00 6.50
Marathonbet 1.39 4.85 6.70
Pinnacle 1.43 5.14 6.70
SBO 1.37 4.61 6.28
William Hill 1.40 4.50 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.40 ▲ +0.02
X 4.92 ▲ +0.12
2 6.70 ▼ -0.30

18 snapshots recorded, from .