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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 27

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC

2 – 2 Full time

5′Matthew Edwards
10′Giuliano Galoppo
43′Luke Brennan
55′Tomás JacobD. Chica
56′Andrés Perea
67′Bénie Adama TraoréLuighi Hanri Sousa Santos
67′Cooper SanchezAjani Fortune
68′Gerardo Daniel Martino
74′Ajani Fortune
80′Nico CavalloKevin O'Toole
86′Giuliano GaloppoSteven Alzate
86′Tristan MuyumbaCameron Dunbar
90′Raul Bicalho

Atlanta Stadium, AtlantaReferee: Alexis Da Silva

Atlanta United FC 40%
Draw 27%
New York City FC 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 3
50 Possession % 50
4 Corners 3
14 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2
2 Saves 3
422 Accurate passes 411

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlanta United FCDrawNew York City FC
Model36.9%31.2%31.9%
Market41.6%26.0%32.4%
Final40.4%27.3%32.3%
Edge-4.7%+5.2%-0.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Atlanta United FC

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlanta United ↓ / New York City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 10% 1 11% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 12%

Atlanta United FC and New York City FC expected goals

Atlanta United FC 1.19
New York City FC 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.27

Atlanta United FC and New York City FC attack and defence ratings

Atlanta United FC

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 1.01 +1%

New York City FC

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC: result vs prediction

Atlanta United FC 2 – 2 New York City FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlanta United FC 40.4% 2.47 -4.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.3% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score No 52.6% 1.90 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.7% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.1% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlanta United FC40.4%
Draw27.3%
New York City FC32.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.7%
Under 2.560.3%
Both teams to scoreYes47.4%
No52.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.7%
12 (either side)72.7%
X2 (draw or away)59.6%
Handicap -1Atlanta United FC win16.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss63.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-011.6%
1-010.9%

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC stats

Atlanta United FC and New York City FC recent form

newest first
Atlanta United FC WDLDLW
New York City FC LWLDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlanta United FC and New York City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlanta United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

New York City FC record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Atlanta United FC wins 6Draws 3New York City FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-06-12New York City FCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer4-0
2025-03-29Atlanta United FCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer4-3
2024-07-17Atlanta United FCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2024-04-06New York City FCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-06-21Atlanta United FCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-04-08New York City FCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2022-10-09Atlanta United FCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer1-2
2022-07-03New York City FCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2021-11-21New York City FCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2021-10-20Atlanta United FCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.6%, draw 26.0%, away 32.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.25 3.60 3.00
BetVictor 2.25 3.60 2.88
Betano 2.25 3.65 3.00
Betfair 2.20 3.75 2.90
Marathonbet 2.25 3.52 2.88
Pinnacle 2.32 3.74 2.98
SBO 2.28 3.29 2.73
William Hill 2.20 3.40 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▼ -0.06
X 3.60 —
2 2.89 ▲ +0.15

18 snapshots recorded, from .