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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 27

Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC

3 – 1 Full time

16′Jordan Morris
28′Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño
35′Hassani Dotson
45′Kyle DuncanBongokuhle Hlongwane
57′Anthony Markanich
58′Owen Gene
59′Daniel MusovskiPaul Arriola
59′Caden ClarkSebastian Gomez
71′Hassani Dotson
78′Marcus CaldeiraMauricio González Carabalí
83′Paul Arriola
84′Kelvin YeboahMaurice Malone
84′Tomás ChancalayAziel Jackson
84′Albert RusnákYeimar Gomez
84′Nouhou ToloKalani Kossa-Rienzi
86′stuar hawkins
90′Jordan MorrisSnyder Brunell

Lumen Field, SeattleReferee: Bensalah, Nabil

Seattle Sounders 43%
Draw 25%
Minnesota United FC 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 14
8 Shots on target 2
56 Possession % 44
5 Corners 7
12 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 1
0 Saves 5
510 Accurate passes 376

Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySeattle SoundersDrawMinnesota United FC
Model46.6%22.8%30.6%
Market42.0%25.4%32.6%
Final43.2%24.7%32.1%
Edge+4.6%-2.6%-2.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Seattle Sounders

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.66.
  • The market prices Seattle Sounders below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Seattle Sounde ↓ / Minnesota Unit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Seattle Sounders and Minnesota United FC expected goals

Seattle Sounders 2.06
Minnesota United FC 1.66

Total expected goals: 3.72

Seattle Sounders and Minnesota United FC attack and defence ratings

Seattle Sounders

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Minnesota United FC

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 1.36 +36%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC: result vs prediction

Seattle Sounders 3 – 1 Minnesota United FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Seattle Sounders 43.2% 2.32 +4.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.8% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.5% 1.40 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.3% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.4% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Seattle Sounders43.2%
Draw24.7%
Minnesota United FC32.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%
Both teams to scoreYes71.5%
No28.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.9%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)56.8%
Handicap -1Seattle Sounders win27.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss53.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.1%
2-18.5%
2-27.1%

Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC stats

Seattle Sounders and Minnesota United FC recent form

newest first
Seattle Sounders WDDDDD
Minnesota United FC LLLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Seattle Sounders and Minnesota United FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Seattle Sounders record

  • They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Minnesota United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Seattle Sounders wins 4Draws 2Minnesota United FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22Minnesota United FCSeattle SoundersMajor League Soccer0-0
2025-11-08Minnesota United FCSeattle SoundersMajor League Soccer3-3
2025-11-04Seattle SoundersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer4-2
2025-10-28Minnesota United FCSeattle SoundersMajor League Soccer0-0
2025-08-17Minnesota United FCSeattle SoundersMajor League Soccer1-0
2025-06-01Seattle SoundersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer2-3
2024-08-24Minnesota United FCSeattle SoundersMajor League Soccer2-3
2024-07-27Seattle SoundersMinnesota United FCLeagues Cup2-0
2024-06-16Seattle SoundersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2023-08-27Minnesota United FCSeattle SoundersMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.0%, draw 25.4%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.30 3.70 3.00
BetVictor 2.20 3.75 2.88
Betano 2.27 3.70 2.92
Betfair 2.20 3.80 2.80
Marathonbet 2.21 3.64 2.88
Pinnacle 2.28 3.79 2.97
SBO 2.26 3.40 2.68
William Hill 2.15 3.50 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.23 ▲ +0.13
X 3.70 —
2 2.88 ▼ -0.17

18 snapshots recorded, from .