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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 27

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

0 – 2 Full time

1′Justin Reynolds
27′André Luiz
45′Calvin Harris
45′Héctor Herrera
45′Taylor Calheira
45′André Luiz
54′Antônio Carlos
56′Franco NegriFelipe·De Andrade Vieira
62′André LuizRuben Ramos Jr
68′Stephen Afrifa
71′Lawrence EnnaliMarcelo Saracchi
71′Ibrahim AliyuLyle Foster
71′Agustín BouzatMatthew Arana
72′Justin ReynoldsJacob Bartlett
72′Calvin HarrisOwen Wolff
79′Taylor CalheiraSeymour Garfield-Reid
80′Stephen AfrifaZorhan Bassong
82′Mateusz BoguszDuncan McGuire

BBVA Compass Stadium, HoustonReferee: Tim Ford

Houston Dynamo 61%
Draw 22%
Sporting Kansas City 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 4
51 Possession % 49
8 Corners 3
3 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 4
429 Accurate passes 402

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHouston DynamoDrawSporting Kansas City
Model64.3%22.0%13.7%
Market60.1%21.9%18.0%
Final61.2%21.9%17.0%
Edge+4.2%+0.2%-4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Houston Dynamo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices Houston Dynamo below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Houston Dynamo ↓ / Sporting Kansa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 10% 11% 2 12% 10% 3 8% 7% 4+ 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City expected goals

Houston Dynamo 2.06
Sporting Kansas City 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.91

Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City attack and defence ratings

Houston Dynamo

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Sporting Kansas City

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.47 +47%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City: result vs prediction

Houston Dynamo 0 – 2 Sporting Kansas City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Houston Dynamo 61.2% 1.64 +4.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.7% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.0% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Houston Dynamo win 40.9% 2.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Houston Dynamo61.2%
Draw21.9%
Sporting Kansas City17.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%
Both teams to scoreYes51.1%
No48.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.0%
12 (either side)78.1%
X2 (draw or away)38.8%
Handicap -1Houston Dynamo win40.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss35.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.5%
1-110.5%
1-010.2%

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City stats

Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City recent form

newest first
Houston Dynamo DLWDDL
Sporting Kansas City LWLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City going into this match

league record before kick-off

Houston Dynamo record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Sporting Kansas City record

  • They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Houston Dynamo wins 4Draws 2Sporting Kansas City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-02Sporting Kansas CityHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer0-2
2025-10-19Sporting Kansas CityHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer0-0
2025-06-01Houston DynamoSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer1-3
2024-05-12Sporting Kansas CityHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-02-25Houston DynamoSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-11-27Houston DynamoSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-09-24Sporting Kansas CityHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-07-09Houston DynamoSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-05-11Houston DynamoSporting Kansas CityUS Open Cup1-0
2022-09-11Houston DynamoSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.1%, draw 21.9%, away 18.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.57 4.33 5.25
BetVictor 1.55 4.20 5.25
Betano 1.62 4.55 5.40
Betfair 1.55 4.40 5.00
Marathonbet 1.55 4.25 5.15
Pinnacle 1.60 4.44 5.24
SBO 1.52 4.02 5.03
William Hill 1.57 4.00 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.56 ▲ +0.12
X 4.29 ▼ -0.26
2 5.20 ▼ -1.05

18 snapshots recorded, from .