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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 26

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union

3 – 4 Full time

5′Andre Luiz
10′Andre Luiz
16′W. Meyer
45′K. Agyabeng
45′J. Bueno
46′I. VassilevQ. Sullivan
46′K. AgyabengJ. Bartlett
53′L. Johnsen
64′B. Damiani
66′C. Sullivan
68′T. CalheiraJ. Reid
68′M. Iloski
70′C. Sullivan
71′S. AfrifaO. Wolff
71′L. JohnsenZ. Bassong
73′Z. Bassong
80′K. Wagner
82′C. SullivanA. Bedoya
83′C. HarrisR. Ramos
83′J. LukicJ. Bueno
83′M. IloskiE. Alladoh
90′B. DamianiA. Anello
90′D. Jean Jacques
90′Z. Bassong

Children's Mercy Park, Kansas CityReferee: E. Koroleva

Sporting Kansas City 17%
Draw 20%
Philadelphia Union 62%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 8
45 Possession % 55
3 Corners 4
11 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
5 Saves 3
284 Accurate passes 375

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting Kansas CityDrawPhiladelphia Union
Model12.1%16.1%71.8%
Market18.9%21.9%59.2%
Final17.2%20.4%62.3%
Edge-6.8%-5.8%+12.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Philadelphia Union

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.17.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Philadelphia Union below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting Kansa ↓ / Philadelphia U → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 10% 1 6% 8% 8% 12% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 2%

Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union expected goals

Sporting Kansas City 1.17
Philadelphia Union 2.88

Total expected goals: 4.05

Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union attack and defence ratings

Sporting Kansas City

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Philadelphia Union

Attack 1.56 +56%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union: result vs prediction

Sporting Kansas City 3 – 4 Philadelphia Union

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Philadelphia Union 62.3% 1.60 +12.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.9% 1.30 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.7% 1.52 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 82.8% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Philadelphia Union win 52.6% 1.90 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting Kansas City17.2%
Draw20.4%
Philadelphia Union62.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.9%
Under 2.523.1%
Both teams to scoreYes65.7%
No34.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)37.7%
12 (either side)79.6%
X2 (draw or away)82.8%
Handicap -1Philadelphia Union win52.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss28.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.5%
1-38.1%
0-27.2%

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union stats

Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union recent form

newest first
Sporting Kansas City WLLLDL
Philadelphia Union WWWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sporting Kansas City record

  • They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.

Philadelphia Union record

  • They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Sporting Kansas City wins 4Draws 4Philadelphia Union wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-03-03Sporting Kansas CityPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-04-01Philadelphia UnionSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer0-0
2020-07-31Philadelphia UnionSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer3-1
2019-03-10Sporting Kansas CityPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer2-0
2018-09-23Philadelphia UnionSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer2-0
2017-07-07Sporting Kansas CityPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer1-1
2016-08-27Philadelphia UnionSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer2-0
2015-09-30Philadelphia UnionSporting Kansas CityUS Open Cup2-2
2015-04-05Sporting Kansas CityPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer3-2
2014-10-18Philadelphia UnionSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.2%, draw 21.7%, away 59.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 5.25 4.33 1.60
BetVictor 5.00 4.40 1.55
Betano 5.00 4.55 1.65
Betfair 4.75 4.50 1.57
Marathonbet 4.85 4.33 1.57
Pinnacle 5.03 4.60 1.60
SBO 3.88 3.77 1.60
William Hill 4.60 4.00 1.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.00 ▲ +0.30
X 4.33 ▲ +0.08
2 1.60 ▼ -0.01

12 snapshots recorded, from .