Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Houston Dynamo
vs
FC Cincinnati
2 – 2 Full time
| 38′ | Guilherme | ||
| 50′ | M. Bogusz | ||
| 55′ | E. EcheniqueB. J. Ramirez Leon | ||
| 55′ | O. NwobodoT. Barlow | ||
| 55′ | N. HagglundT. Hadebe | ||
| 68′ | A. BouzatD. Samassekou | ||
| 73′ | B. J. Ramirez Leon | ||
| 82′ | L. EnnaliI. Aliyu | ||
| 82′ | H. HerreraM. Arana | ||
| 85′ | P. BuchaK. Smith | ||
| 88′ | G. ValenzuelaA. Jabbari | ||
| 90′ | GuilhermeD. McGuire | ||
| 90′ | K. Denkey |
Houston Dynamo
53%
Draw
24%
FC Cincinnati
23%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 26 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 0 |
| 370 | Accurate passes | 512 |
Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati
| Probability | Houston Dynamo | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.2% | 24.9% | 16.9% |
| Market | 50.7% | 23.9% | 25.4% |
| Final | 52.6% | 24.2% | 23.2% |
| Edge | +7.5% | +1.0% | -8.5% |
Why Houston Dynamo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Houston Dynamo below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati expected goals
Houston Dynamo
1.81
FC Cincinnati
0.88
Total expected goals: 2.69
Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati attack and defence ratings
Houston Dynamo
Attack
0.74 -26%
Defence
0.56 -44%
FC Cincinnati
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
1.42 +42%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati: result vs prediction
Houston Dynamo 2 – 2 FC Cincinnati
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC
- New England Revolution v Orlando City SC — match page
- CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew — team news & stats
- DC United vs Charlotte
- FC Dallas v Austin — match page
- Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
- Minnesota United FC v Los Angeles Galaxy — match page
Before and after this match
Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 52.6% | 1.90 | +7.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 52.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| FC Cincinnati | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Houston Dynamo win | 34.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 41.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.1% |
Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati stats
Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati recent form
| Houston Dynamo |
LWDDLW |
| FC Cincinnati |
DLLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati going into this match
Houston Dynamo record
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
FC Cincinnati record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
0Houston Dynamo wins
3Draws
2FC Cincinnati wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | Houston Dynamo | FC Cincinnati | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-30 | FC Cincinnati | Houston Dynamo | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-26 | FC Cincinnati | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2021-07-04 | Houston Dynamo | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2019-07-06 | FC Cincinnati | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 23.7%, away 25.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.92 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 4.15 | 3.76 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.34 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.85 ▲ +0.05
X
3.92 ▼ -0.08
2
3.70 ▼ -0.14
13 snapshots recorded, from .