Major League Soccer · 2026-09-12T23:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 25

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte

3 – 3 Full time

2′			Pavel Bucha
7′			Liel Abada
17′			Pep Biel
44′			Liel AbadaRodolfo Aloko
51′			Kevin Denkey
55′			Idan Toklomati Jorno
56′			Tom BarlowBryan Ramirez
70′			Luca De La TorreBrandt Bronico
74′			Andrei ChirilăKristian Fletcher
74′			Nick HagglundTeenage Hadebe
76′			Samuel Mawuena Gidi
77′			Will ClearyMorrison Agyemang
78′			Idan Toklomati JornoTyger Smalls
81′			Kenji Mboma Dem
83′			Rodolfo Aloko
85′			Samuel Mawuena GidiKyle Smith
85′			Kenji Mboma DemAyoub Jabbari
90′			Kevin Denkey

TQL Stadium, CincinnatiReferee: Pierre-Luc Lauziere, USA

FC Cincinnati

39%

Draw

23%

Charlotte

38%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

29	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	4
69	Possession %	31
12	Corners	3
6	Fouls	10
1	Saves	7
585	Accurate passes	239

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FC Cincinnati	Draw	Charlotte
Model	20.4%	22.4%	57.1%
Market	44.9%	23.4%	31.7%
Final	38.8%	23.2%	38.1%
Edge	-24.4%	-1.0%	+25.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

96%

2+ goals

86%

3+ goals

65%

No goals

FC Cincinnati and Charlotte expected goals

FC Cincinnati

1.22

Charlotte

2.13

Total expected goals: 3.35

FC Cincinnati and Charlotte attack and defence ratings

FC Cincinnati

Attack

1.07 +7%

Defence

1.37 +37%

Charlotte

Attack

1.14 +14%

Defence

0.66 -34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte: result vs prediction

FC Cincinnati 3 – 3 Charlotte

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Major League Soccer

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DC United v Atlanta United FC — match page · 2026-09-12
Inter Miami vs Nashville SC · 2026-09-12
FC Dallas v Portland Timbers — match page · 2026-09-13
Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC · 2026-09-13
Real Salt Lake v New York City FC — match page · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

FC Cincinnati, previous: Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati prediction
FC Cincinnati, next: Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati: odds and pick
Charlotte, previous: CF Montreal vs Charlotte prediction
Charlotte, next: DC United – Charlotte, 2026-09-19

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Cincinnati	38.8%	2.58	-24.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65.0%	1.54	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	63.1%	1.59	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	76.8%	1.30	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	79.6%	1.26	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FC Cincinnati	38.8%
	Draw	23.2%
	Charlotte	38.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65.0%
	Under 2.5	35.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	63.1%
	No	36.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	61.9%
	12 (either side)	76.8%
	X2 (draw or away)	61.2%
Handicap -1	FC Cincinnati win	8.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	12.0%
	Loss	79.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.0%
	1-2	9.7%
	0-2	7.9%

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte stats

FC Cincinnati and Charlotte recent form

newest first

FC Cincinnati	LLDWDL
Charlotte	WDWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Cincinnati and Charlotte going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Cincinnati record

They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Charlotte record

They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2FC Cincinnati wins 3Draws 4Charlotte wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-09	Charlotte	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer	2-2
2025-08-10	FC Cincinnati	Charlotte	Major League Soccer	0-1
2025-03-15	Charlotte	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer	2-0
2024-07-13	FC Cincinnati	Charlotte	Major League Soccer	1-3
2024-03-30	Charlotte	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer	1-1
2023-09-23	FC Cincinnati	Charlotte	Major League Soccer	3-0
2023-07-08	Charlotte	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer	2-2
2022-09-03	FC Cincinnati	Charlotte	Major League Soccer	2-0
2022-03-26	Charlotte	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer	2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.7%, draw 23.0%, away 31.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.81	4.10	3.65
888Sport	1.75	4.00	3.70
Bet365	2.05	4.33	3.00
BetVictor	2.10	4.00	2.90
Betano	2.15	4.20	3.10
Betfair	2.10	3.90	3.00
Dafabet	1.81	4.20	4.00
Marathonbet	2.05	4.05	2.97
Pinnacle	2.15	4.20	2.97
SBO	2.11	3.65	2.77
Unibet	1.75	4.20	3.80
William Hill	2.05	3.80	2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▲ +0.34

X 4.03 ▼ -0.07

2 2.97 ▼ -0.83

10 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-08T08:10:02Z.