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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 25

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC

4 – 2 Full time

5′Tomás Chancalay
18′Daniel Edelman
22′Carlo Holse
38′Rafael Navarro Leal
47′Michael Boxall
57′Rafael Navarro Leal
59′Rafael SantosTomas Totland
59′Daniel EdelmanChristopher Durkin
59′Carlo HolseAlexandru Măţan
61′Kelvin Yeboah
64′Kyle Duncan
75′Nicolás RomeroJefferson Abel Díaz Beleño
75′Kelvin YeboahMaurice Malone
75′Wil TrappNectarios Triantis
76′Simon BecherDamion Downs
76′Fallou FallLukas MacNaughton
80′Kyle Duncan
83′Tomás ChancalayAziel Jackson

Energizer Park, St. LouisReferee: Ricardo Montero, Costa Rica

St. Louis City 50%
Draw 23%
Minnesota United FC 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 3
65 Possession % 35
6 Corners 5
14 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1
1 Saves 4
537 Accurate passes 261

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySt. Louis CityDrawMinnesota United FC
Model62.9%18.9%18.2%
Market46.3%24.8%28.9%
Final50.5%23.3%26.2%
Edge+16.6%-5.9%-10.6%

Confidence: Low

Why St. Louis City

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.40.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices St. Louis City below the model: +16.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

St. Louis City ↓ / Minnesota Unit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 2%

St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC expected goals

St. Louis City 2.62
Minnesota United FC 1.40

Total expected goals: 4.02

St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC attack and defence ratings

St. Louis City

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Minnesota United FC

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC: result vs prediction

St. Louis City 4 – 2 Minnesota United FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 St. Louis City 50.5% 1.98 +16.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.5% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.5% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 St. Louis City win 43.0% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2St. Louis City50.5%
Draw23.3%
Minnesota United FC26.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.5%
Under 2.523.5%
Both teams to scoreYes70.5%
No29.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.8%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)49.5%
Handicap -1St. Louis City win43.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss37.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.6%
3-17.5%
1-17.3%

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC stats

St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC recent form

newest first
St. Louis City DWDWDW
Minnesota United FC LLDWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

St. Louis City record

  • They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Minnesota United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

1St. Louis City wins 0Draws 6Minnesota United FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-27St. Louis CityMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-05-21Minnesota United FCSt. Louis CityUS Open Cup3-2
2025-05-18Minnesota United FCSt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer3-0
2024-10-20Minnesota United FCSt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer4-1
2024-09-15St. Louis CityMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-3
2023-09-24Minnesota United FCSt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer1-2
2023-04-02St. Louis CityMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 24.8%, away 28.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.97 3.85 3.30
888Sport 2.00 3.60 3.20
Bet365 2.00 3.75 3.50
BetVictor 2.00 3.80 3.25
Betano 2.10 3.75 3.30
Betfair 2.05 3.90 3.20
Dafabet 2.04 3.80 3.45
Marathonbet 1.99 3.82 3.24
Pinnacle 2.07 3.81 3.40
SBO 2.04 3.50 3.01
Unibet 1.98 3.65 3.40
William Hill 2.00 3.60 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.02 ▲ +0.03
X 3.77 ▲ +0.07
2 3.25 —

12 snapshots recorded, from .