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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 26

Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy

2 – 3 Full time

12′P. Ruiz
23′M. Caldeira
26′R. Taylor
28′K. Yeboah
60′K. FuruhashiJoao Klauss
60′H. MillerM. Reus
67′K. YeboahT. Chancalay
68′J. AudeJ. Nelson
69′E. ThommyL. Sanabria
69′C. Harvey
73′M. DugganJ. Diaz
76′Joao Klauss
80′M. Reus
82′W. TrappN. Triantis
82′M. CaldeiraM. Malone
90′R. TaylorM. Yoshida

Allianz Field, Sao PauloReferee: S. Demianchuk

Minnesota United FC 59%
Draw 21%
Los Angeles Galaxy 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 5
44 Possession % 56
5 Corners 8
13 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 3
314 Accurate passes 423

Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMinnesota United FCDrawLos Angeles Galaxy
Model55.5%22.6%21.9%
Market60.7%20.4%18.9%
Final59.4%21.0%19.6%
Edge-5.2%+2.2%+3.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Minnesota United FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.28.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Minnesota Unit ↓ / Los Angeles Ga → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 7% 10% 6% 3 5% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles Galaxy expected goals

Minnesota United FC 2.11
Los Angeles Galaxy 1.28

Total expected goals: 3.39

Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles Galaxy attack and defence ratings

Minnesota United FC

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Los Angeles Galaxy

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy: result vs prediction

Minnesota United FC 2 – 3 Los Angeles Galaxy

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Minnesota United FC 59.4% 1.68 -5.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.9% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.4% 1.55 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.4% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.6% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Minnesota United FC59.4%
Draw21.0%
Los Angeles Galaxy19.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%
Both teams to scoreYes64.4%
No35.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.4%
12 (either side)79.0%
X2 (draw or away)40.6%
Handicap -1Minnesota United FC win34.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss44.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.0%
2-19.6%
2-07.5%

Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy stats

Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles Galaxy recent form

newest first
Minnesota United FC LLLDWL
Los Angeles Galaxy DLWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles Galaxy going into this match

league record before kick-off

Minnesota United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Los Angeles Galaxy record

  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Minnesota United FC wins 2Draws 5Los Angeles Galaxy wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Los Angeles GalaxyMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-10-19Los Angeles GalaxyMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-03-22Minnesota United FCLos Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer2-2
2025-02-12Los Angeles GalaxyMinnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs2-1
2024-11-24Los Angeles GalaxyMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer6-2
2024-07-08Los Angeles GalaxyMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer2-1
2024-05-16Minnesota United FCLos Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-10-08Minnesota United FCLos Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer5-2
2023-09-21Los Angeles GalaxyMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer4-3
2022-06-30Los Angeles GalaxyMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.0%, draw 20.5%, away 19.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.55 4.75 5.00
BetVictor 1.53 4.60 5.00
Betano 1.67 4.60 4.75
Betfair 1.62 4.40 4.60
Marathonbet 1.53 4.60 4.90
Pinnacle 1.57 4.84 4.98
SBO 1.60 3.72 3.94
William Hill 1.57 4.33 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.55 ▼ -0.16
X 4.60 ▲ +0.25
2 4.98 ▲ +0.83

13 snapshots recorded, from .