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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 25

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

3 – 0 Full time

20′Luis Otávio Costa de Aquino
27′Joran Gerbet
45′Antoine Griezmann
45′Theo CorbeanuAlonso
45′Joran GerbetWilder Cartagena
54′Derrick Etienne Jr.
60′Alonso
64′Tyrese SpicerBernardo Rhein
65′Martin OjedaDaryl Dike
65′Derrick Etienne Jr.Malik Henry
65′Matheus Pereira de SouzaNickseon Gomis
70′Antoine GriezmannJustin Ellis
71′Markus CimermancicEmilio Aristizábal
80′Benjamin KuscevicRaheem Edwards
80′Marco PašalićHarvey Graham Sarajian
82′Harvey Graham Sarajian
90′Iago Teodoro
90′Iván Angulo

Exploria Stadium, OrlandoReferee: Jon Freemon, USA

Orlando City SC 51%
Draw 23%
Toronto FC 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 18
8 Shots on target 4
58 Possession % 42
4 Corners 3
13 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 3
4 Saves 5
449 Accurate passes 319

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOrlando City SCDrawToronto FC
Model53.2%21.6%25.1%
Market50.6%23.2%26.1%
Final51.3%22.8%25.9%
Edge+2.6%-1.6%-1.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Orlando City SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.54.
  • The market prices Orlando City SC below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Orlando City S ↓ / Toronto FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Orlando City SC and Toronto FC expected goals

Orlando City SC 2.26
Toronto FC 1.54

Total expected goals: 3.80

Orlando City SC and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings

Orlando City SC

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Toronto FC

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC: result vs prediction

Orlando City SC 3 – 0 Toronto FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Orlando City SC 51.3% 1.95 +2.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.0% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.1% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.2% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.8% 2.14 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Orlando City SC51.3%
Draw22.8%
Toronto FC25.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.0%
Under 2.527.0%
Both teams to scoreYes71.1%
No28.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.1%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)48.7%
Handicap -1Orlando City SC win33.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss46.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.8%
1-18.6%
2-26.8%

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC stats

Orlando City SC and Toronto FC recent form

newest first
Orlando City SC WWDWLD
Toronto FC WDDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orlando City SC and Toronto FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Orlando City SC record

  • They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Toronto FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Orlando City SC wins 1Draws 2Toronto FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-18Toronto FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer4-2
2025-03-02Orlando City SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer4-2
2024-07-03Toronto FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-04-27Orlando City SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer1-2
2023-10-21Toronto FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer0-2
2023-07-04Orlando City SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer4-0
2022-09-17Orlando City SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer4-0
2022-05-14Toronto FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer0-1
2021-07-17Toronto FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-1
2021-06-19Toronto FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 23.2%, away 26.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.81 4.10 3.65
888Sport 1.80 3.90 3.60
Bet365 1.85 4.00 3.80
BetVictor 1.83 4.10 3.60
Betano 1.91 4.15 3.85
Betfair 1.91 3.90 3.60
Dafabet 1.82 4.30 3.90
Marathonbet 1.84 4.10 3.52
Pinnacle 1.87 4.15 3.77
SBO 1.87 3.72 3.28
Unibet 1.86 3.95 3.55
William Hill 1.85 3.80 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.86 ▲ +0.06
X 4.05 ▼ -0.10
2 3.60 ▼ -0.08

10 snapshots recorded, from .