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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC

2 – 1 Full time

3′Niklas Dorsch
59′Benjamin KuscevicNickseon Gomis
59′Lewis MorganTheo Corbeanu
59′Jackson GilmanMatheus Pereira de Souza
66′Elias SaadAhmed Qasim
70′Niklas DorschMarkus Cimermancic
72′Dániel Sallói
74′Edvard Sandvik TagsethPatrick Yazbek
74′Daniel LovitzAndy Najar
75′Josh SargentEmilio Aristizábal
87′Cristian EspinozaShakur Mohammed
90′Emilio Aristizábal
90′Luka Gavran

BMO Field, TorontoReferee: Filip Dujic, Canada

Toronto FC 29%
Draw 26%
Nashville SC 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 5
42 Possession % 58
3 Corners 8
9 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 6
5 Saves 5
300 Accurate passes 437

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Toronto FC vs Nashville SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityToronto FCDrawNashville SC
Model23.4%24.5%52.1%
Market31.4%26.2%42.4%
Final29.4%25.7%44.9%
Edge-8.0%-1.7%+9.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Nashville SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.22.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Nashville SC below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Toronto FC ↓ / Nashville SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Toronto FC and Nashville SC expected goals

Toronto FC 1.22
Nashville SC 1.89

Total expected goals: 3.11

Toronto FC and Nashville SC attack and defence ratings

Toronto FC

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Nashville SC

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC: result vs prediction

Toronto FC 2 – 1 Nashville SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nashville SC 44.9% 2.23 +9.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.1% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.9% 1.64 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.3% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.9% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Toronto FC29.4%
Draw25.7%
Nashville SC44.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%
Both teams to scoreYes60.9%
No39.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.1%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)70.6%
Handicap -1Nashville SC win30.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss47.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
1-29.7%
0-28.0%

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC stats

Toronto FC and Nashville SC recent form

newest first
Toronto FC DDWDWD
Nashville SC DWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Toronto FC and Nashville SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Toronto FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nashville SC record

  • They have won 16 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Toronto FC wins 3Draws 4Nashville SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-20Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer1-0
2025-05-24Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-06-19Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-05-16Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2023-06-10Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-04-09Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer0-0
2022-08-07Nashville SCToronto FCMajor League Soccer3-4
2021-09-18Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer2-1
2021-08-01Toronto FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 26.2%, away 42.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.86 3.70 2.22
888Sport 2.90 3.30 2.25
Bet365 3.10 3.60 2.20
BetVictor 3.00 3.60 2.20
Betano 3.00 3.65 2.25
Betfair 3.10 3.60 2.20
Dafabet 3.05 3.60 2.30
Marathonbet 2.98 3.50 2.22
Pinnacle 3.11 3.65 2.25
SBO 2.83 3.32 2.20
Superbet 3.05 3.55 2.27
Unibet 3.05 3.50 2.20
William Hill 2.90 3.30 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▲ +0.11
X 3.60 —
2 2.22 ▼ -0.01

17 snapshots recorded, from .