Garuda Lions
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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami

1 – 1 Full time

4′Telasco Segovia
10′Robert Lewandowski
24′Maximiliano Falcon
48′Carlos Henrique Casimiro
50′Jonathan Dean
56′Robin LodPuso Dithejane
59′Djé D'Avilla
67′Jonathan DeanLeonardo José Caetano Barroso
67′Maren Haile-SelassieSergio Oregel
71′Germán Berterame
78′Fricio CaicedoFacundo Mura
78′Telasco SegoviaAlexander Shaw
90′Anton SaletrosMauricio Pineda

Soldier Field, ChicagoReferee: Jair Antonio Maruffo, USA

Chicago Fire 45%
Draw 22%
Inter Miami 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 8
44 Possession % 56
2 Corners 5
16 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2
6 Saves 2
346 Accurate passes 448

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChicago FireDrawInter Miami
Model48.6%18.7%32.7%
Market43.6%22.9%33.5%
Final44.9%21.8%33.3%
Edge+4.9%-4.1%-0.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Chicago Fire

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 2.29.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Chicago Fire below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chicago Fire ↓ / Inter Miami → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 4% 5% 2 6% 6% 5% 5% 3 5% 6% 4% 4% 4+ 7% 8% 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 88%
No goals 1%

Chicago Fire and Inter Miami expected goals

Chicago Fire 2.75
Inter Miami 2.29

Total expected goals: 5.04

Chicago Fire and Inter Miami attack and defence ratings

Chicago Fire

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Inter Miami

Attack 1.58 +58%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami: result vs prediction

Chicago Fire 1 – 1 Inter Miami

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chicago Fire 44.9% 2.23 +4.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 87.9% 1.14 — —
Both teams to score Yes 84.5% 1.18 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.2% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.4% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chicago Fire44.9%
Draw21.8%
Inter Miami33.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.587.9%
Under 2.512.1%
Both teams to scoreYes84.5%
No15.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.7%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)55.1%
Handicap -1Chicago Fire win31.4%
Push (exactly one goal)17.2%
Loss51.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-26.4%
3-25.9%
2-15.6%

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami stats

Chicago Fire and Inter Miami recent form

newest first
Chicago Fire DDLDWW
Inter Miami DWLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chicago Fire and Inter Miami going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chicago Fire record

  • They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Inter Miami record

  • They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Chicago Fire wins 2Draws 4Inter Miami wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-22Inter MiamiChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-2
2025-09-30Inter MiamiChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-5
2025-04-13Chicago FireInter MiamiMajor League Soccer0-0
2024-09-01Chicago FireInter MiamiMajor League Soccer1-4
2024-07-20Inter MiamiChicago FireMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-10-05Chicago FireInter MiamiMajor League Soccer4-1
2023-03-25Inter MiamiChicago FireMajor League Soccer2-3
2022-09-11Chicago FireInter MiamiMajor League Soccer3-1
2022-02-26Inter MiamiChicago FireMajor League Soccer0-0
2021-08-18Inter MiamiChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 22.9%, away 33.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 4.10 2.82
888Sport 2.10 3.90 2.80
Bet365 2.30 4.00 2.75
BetVictor 2.15 4.20 2.80
Betano 2.15 4.15 2.92
Betfair 2.10 4.10 2.90
Dafabet 2.22 4.10 2.90
Marathonbet 2.19 4.00 2.73
Pinnacle 2.17 4.24 2.91
SBO 2.14 3.81 2.63
Superbet 2.17 4.10 2.87
Unibet 2.14 4.10 2.75
William Hill 2.10 3.90 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 —
X 4.10 ▲ +0.05
2 2.80 —

17 snapshots recorded, from .