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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 23

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC

2 – 2 Full time

28′Maximiliano Falcon
32′Casemiro
35′M. Almiron
39′Cooper Sanchez
42′Germán Berterame
45′L. Suarez
46′M. FalconF. Mura
56′W. ReillyS. Alzate
56′C. SanchezM. Amaro
58′Fricio Caicedo
62′Dayne St. Clair
66′T. JacobM. Edwards
69′T. SegoviaA. Shaw
72′Carlos Henrique Casimiro
84′L. SuarezM. Silvetti
85′T. MuyumbaF. Picault
87′B. Embolo
90′Matthew Edwards
90′Inter MiamiD. Pinter

Nu Stadium, MiamiReferee: Jon Freemon, USA

Inter Miami 72%
Draw 16%
Atlanta United FC 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 5
44 Possession % 56
6 Corners 6
15 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 2
4 Saves 1
447 Accurate passes 435

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityInter MiamiDrawAtlanta United FC
Model68.3%15.8%16.0%
Market73.2%15.5%11.4%
Final71.9%15.5%12.5%
Edge-4.9%+0.3%+4.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Inter Miami

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.16 vs 1.59.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Inter Miami ↓ / Atlanta United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 7% 3 7% 4+ 8% 13% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 85%
No goals 1%

Inter Miami and Atlanta United FC expected goals

Inter Miami 3.16
Atlanta United FC 1.59

Total expected goals: 4.75

Inter Miami and Atlanta United FC attack and defence ratings

Inter Miami

Attack 1.64 +64%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Atlanta United FC

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC: result vs prediction

Inter Miami 2 – 2 Atlanta United FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Inter Miami 71.9% 1.39 -4.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 85.3% 1.17 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.6% 1.30 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.5% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Inter Miami win 50.2% 1.99 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Inter Miami71.9%
Draw15.5%
Atlanta United FC12.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.585.3%
Under 2.514.7%
Both teams to scoreYes76.6%
No23.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.5%
12 (either side)84.5%
X2 (draw or away)28.1%
Handicap -1Inter Miami win50.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss31.7%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.2%
2-16.9%
3-25.8%

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC stats

Inter Miami and Atlanta United FC recent form

newest first
Inter Miami WLDLLL
Atlanta United FC LWWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Inter Miami and Atlanta United FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Inter Miami record

  • They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlanta United FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Inter Miami wins 1Draws 4Atlanta United FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-11Inter MiamiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer4-0
2025-03-16Atlanta United FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-11-10Inter MiamiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-3
2024-11-02Atlanta United FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer2-1
2024-10-26Inter MiamiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-1
2024-09-18Atlanta United FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer2-2
2024-05-29Inter MiamiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-3
2023-09-16Atlanta United FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer5-2
2023-07-25Inter MiamiAtlanta United FCLeagues Cup4-0
2023-05-06Inter MiamiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 70.7%, draw 16.2%, away 13.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.37 5.60 6.25
Bet365 1.30 5.75 9.00
BetVictor 1.25 6.50 8.50
Betano 1.36 5.80 7.00
Betfair 1.33 5.50 7.00
Dafabet 1.36 6.00 7.20
Marathonbet 1.27 6.10 8.30
Pinnacle 1.31 6.44 7.96
SBO 1.36 4.67 5.22
Unibet 1.35 5.50 6.75
William Hill 1.29 6.00 7.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.29 ▼ -0.07
X 6.10 ▲ +0.85
2 8.30 ▲ +1.60

24 snapshots recorded, from .