Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 22
Atlanta United FC
vs
Charlotte
0 – 2 Full time
Atlanta United FC
37%
Draw
26%
Charlotte
37%
Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte
| Probability | Atlanta United FC | Draw | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 24.9% | 46.7% |
| Market | 39.9% | 25.8% | 34.3% |
| Final | 37.0% | 25.6% | 37.4% |
| Edge | -11.5% | -0.8% | +12.4% |
Why Charlotte
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Charlotte below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
62%
No goals
5%
Atlanta United FC and Charlotte expected goals
Atlanta United FC
1.38
Charlotte
1.82
Total expected goals: 3.20
Atlanta United FC and Charlotte attack and defence ratings
Atlanta United FC
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Charlotte
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte: result vs prediction
Atlanta United FC 0 – 2 Charlotte
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 22 fixtures
- Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
- Toronto FC v New York City FC — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union — team news & stats
- DC United vs Los Angeles FC — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs CF Montreal
- Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes — match page
- Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC
Before and after this match
Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 37.4% | 2.67 | +12.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 37.0% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Charlotte | 37.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlotte win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 53.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte stats
Atlanta United FC and Charlotte recent form
| Atlanta United FC |
WWWLLD |
| Charlotte |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlanta United FC and Charlotte going into this match
Atlanta United FC record
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlotte record
- They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
1Atlanta United FC wins
1Draws
2Charlotte wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Charlotte | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2026-04-28 | Charlotte | Atlanta United FC | US Open Cup | 0-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Atlanta United FC | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2025-03-01 | Charlotte | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 25.8%, away 34.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.55 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.61 | 2.77 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 3.26 | 2.58 |
| Superbet | 2.35 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.65 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.34 ▲ +0.13
X
3.63 ▼ -0.10
2
2.73 ▼ -0.15
11 snapshots recorded, from .