Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 22
New York Red Bulls
vs
Philadelphia Union
1 – 3 Full time
New York Red Bulls
33%
Draw
24%
Philadelphia Union
42%
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
| Probability | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.3% | 25.0% | 38.7% |
| Market | 32.1% | 24.3% | 43.6% |
| Final | 33.2% | 24.4% | 42.4% |
| Edge | +4.2% | +0.7% | -5.0% |
Why Philadelphia Union
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
5%
New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union expected goals
New York Red Bulls
1.62
Philadelphia Union
1.68
Total expected goals: 3.31
New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union attack and defence ratings
New York Red Bulls
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Philadelphia Union
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: result vs prediction
New York Red Bulls 1 – 3 Philadelphia Union
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 22 fixtures
- Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
- Toronto FC v New York City FC — match page
- Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte
- DC United vs Los Angeles FC — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs CF Montreal
- Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes — match page
- Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC
Before and after this match
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 42.4% | 2.36 | -5.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 33.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Philadelphia Union | 42.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% |
| No | 33.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union stats
New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union recent form
| New York Red Bulls |
DLLWLL |
| Philadelphia Union |
DDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union going into this match
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
1New York Red Bulls wins
0Draws
3Philadelphia Union wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Philadelphia Union | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | New York Red Bulls | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Philadelphia Union | New York Red Bulls | US Open Cup | 3-2 |
| 2025-07-12 | Philadelphia Union | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 24.3%, away 43.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.92 | 3.95 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 4.00 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.78 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | 3.04 | 3.89 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.14 |
| Superbet | 2.95 | 3.85 | 2.22 |
| Unibet | 2.90 | 3.85 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.91 ▼ -0.09
X
3.85 —
2
2.14 ▲ +0.02
11 snapshots recorded, from .