New York Red Bulls
vs
Chicago Fire
1 – 1 Full time
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire
| Probability | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.9% | 23.3% | 51.8% |
| Market | 35.2% | 25.0% | 39.8% |
| Final | 32.6% | 24.6% | 42.8% |
| Edge | -10.3% | -1.7% | +12.0% |
Why Chicago Fire
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chicago Fire below the model: +12.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire attack and defence ratings
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire: result vs prediction
New York Red Bulls 1 – 1 Chicago Fire
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
- Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake
- CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders
- Inter Miami v Toronto FC — match page
- Charlotte vs DC United — team news & stats
- Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew
- St. Louis City v Houston Dynamo — match page
- Austin vs Philadelphia Union — team news & stats
Before and after this match
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 42.8% | 2.33 | +12.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 32.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Chicago Fire | 42.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chicago Fire win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 6.9% |
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire stats
New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire recent form
| New York Red Bulls |
LLWLLW |
| Chicago Fire |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire going into this match
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Chicago Fire | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2025-07-27 | Chicago Fire | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | New York Red Bulls | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 24.6%, away 40.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.58 | 4.10 | 2.28 |
| 888Sport | 2.63 | 4.00 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.70 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.90 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 3.84 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.95 | 2.44 |
| SBO | 2.52 | 3.70 | 2.27 |
| Superbet | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.37 |
| Unibet | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .