Inter Miami
vs
Toronto FC
1 – 2 Full time
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inter Miami vs Toronto FC
| Probability | Inter Miami | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.2% | 19.0% | 23.8% |
| Market | 70.2% | 16.4% | 13.4% |
| Final | 66.9% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| Edge | -13.0% | +2.7% | +10.4% |
Why Inter Miami
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.76.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inter Miami and Toronto FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.45
Inter Miami and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings
Inter Miami
Toronto FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC: result vs prediction
Inter Miami 1 – 2 Toronto FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
- Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake
- New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire — match page
- CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders
- Charlotte vs DC United — team news & stats
- Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew
- St. Louis City v Houston Dynamo — match page
- Austin vs Philadelphia Union — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 66.9% | 1.49 | -13.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.8% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 66.9% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Toronto FC | 16.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.7% |
| No | 22.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Miami win | 38.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 42.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.5% |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC stats
Inter Miami and Toronto FC recent form
| Inter Miami |
DLLLWD |
| Toronto FC |
DWDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inter Miami and Toronto FC going into this match
Inter Miami record
- They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC record
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Toronto FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 2-4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Toronto FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Inter Miami | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.9%, draw 16.5%, away 13.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.41 | 5.40 | 5.75 |
| 888Sport | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 5.80 | 7.80 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.37 | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 5.75 | 7.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 6.10 | 7.18 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 5.42 | 5.80 |
| Superbet | 1.36 | 5.85 | 6.70 |
| Unibet | 1.33 | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.50 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .