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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 22

Toronto FC vs New York City FC

1 – 1 Full time

BMO Field, TorontoReferee: Malik Badawi, USA

Toronto FC 39%
Draw 27%
New York City FC 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Toronto FC vs New York City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Toronto FC vs New York City FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityToronto FCDrawNew York City FC
Model43.2%26.8%30.0%
Market38.1%26.5%35.5%
Final39.4%26.5%34.1%
Edge+5.1%+0.4%-5.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Toronto FC

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Toronto FC below the model: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Toronto FC ↓ / New York City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 13% 7% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Toronto FC and New York City FC expected goals

Toronto FC 1.59
New York City FC 1.30

Total expected goals: 2.89

Toronto FC and New York City FC attack and defence ratings

Toronto FC

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.06 +6%

New York City FC

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Toronto FC vs New York City FC: result vs prediction

Toronto FC 1 – 1 New York City FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 22 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Toronto FC vs New York City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Toronto FC 39.4% 2.54 +5.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.2% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.1% 1.69 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.5% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.8% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Toronto FC39.4%
Draw26.5%
New York City FC34.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%
Both teams to scoreYes59.1%
No40.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.9%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)60.6%
Handicap -1Toronto FC win22.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss56.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
2-19.1%
1-07.7%

Toronto FC vs New York City FC stats

Toronto FC and New York City FC recent form

newest first
Toronto FC WDWDLD
New York City FC DLLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Toronto FC and New York City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Toronto FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New York City FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Toronto FC vs New York City FC head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

0Toronto FC wins 1Draws 2New York City FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-31New York City FCToronto FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-07-03New York City FCToronto FCMajor League Soccer3-1
2025-04-26Toronto FCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Toronto FC vs New York City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 26.5%, away 35.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.40 3.65 2.64
Bet365 2.45 3.50 2.62
BetVictor 2.40 3.50 2.55
Betano 2.52 3.60 2.67
Betfair 2.45 3.75 2.60
Dafabet 2.55 3.60 2.70
Marathonbet 2.48 3.50 2.61
Pinnacle 2.52 3.62 2.66
SBO 2.32 3.19 2.46
Superbet 2.52 3.55 2.70
Unibet 2.45 3.50 2.65
William Hill 2.45 3.30 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▼ -0.04
X 3.52 ▼ -0.13
2 2.63 ▲ +0.07

11 snapshots recorded, from .