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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 23

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire

4 – 4 Full time

13′M. Haile-Selassie
18′Samuel Rogers
27′J. Sargent
34′Markus Cimermancic
38′J. Sargent
46′S. RogersN. Allen
49′W. Zimmerman
54′J. Sargent
55′Matheus PereiraJ. Gilman
58′M. Haile-Selassie
63′R. Lewandowski
64′T. CorbeanuL. Morgan
64′P. DithejaneR. Lod
78′D. D'AvillaM. Pineda
78′M. Haile-SelassieS. Oregel
79′D. MihailovicD. Etienne
79′M. CimermancicE. Aristizabal
86′Robin Lod
89′P. ZinckernagelJ. Gomez
90′Benjamin Kuscevic
90′D. Etienne

BMO Field, TorontoReferee: Tori Penso, USA

Toronto FC 33%
Draw 25%
Chicago Fire 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 6
43 Possession % 57
6 Corners 3
9 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
3 Saves 4
287 Accurate passes 405

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityToronto FCDrawChicago Fire
Model35.8%26.0%38.2%
Market32.6%25.1%42.3%
Final33.4%25.4%41.2%
Edge+3.2%+0.9%-4.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Chicago Fire

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Toronto FC ↓ / Chicago Fire → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 12% 9% 2 8% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 6%

Toronto FC and Chicago Fire expected goals

Toronto FC 1.52
Chicago Fire 1.57

Total expected goals: 3.09

Toronto FC and Chicago Fire attack and defence ratings

Toronto FC

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Chicago Fire

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire: result vs prediction

Toronto FC 4 – 4 Chicago Fire

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chicago Fire 41.2% 2.43 -4.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.7% 1.67 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.0% 1.59 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.6% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.8% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Toronto FC33.4%
Draw25.4%
Chicago Fire41.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.7%
Under 2.540.3%
Both teams to scoreYes63.0%
No37.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.8%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)66.6%
Handicap -1Chicago Fire win19.4%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss61.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
1-28.5%
2-18.2%

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire stats

Toronto FC and Chicago Fire recent form

newest first
Toronto FC DWDWDL
Chicago Fire DLDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Toronto FC and Chicago Fire going into this match

league record before kick-off

Toronto FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chicago Fire record

  • They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Toronto FC wins 3Draws 5Chicago Fire wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-24Chicago FireToronto FCMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-10-05Chicago FireToronto FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2025-03-15Toronto FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-09-29Chicago FireToronto FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2024-06-15Toronto FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-4
2023-07-16Chicago FireToronto FCMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-05-31Toronto FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer0-0
2022-07-14Chicago FireToronto FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2022-05-28Toronto FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-2
2021-10-03Toronto FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.8%, draw 25.2%, away 42.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.74 3.75 2.28
Bet365 2.90 3.75 2.25
BetVictor 2.88 3.75 2.20
Betano 2.95 3.60 2.32
Betfair 2.75 3.80 2.25
Dafabet 2.90 3.80 2.32
Marathonbet 2.89 3.60 2.23
Pinnacle 3.02 3.79 2.28
SBO 2.62 3.31 2.14
Unibet 2.85 3.60 2.28
William Hill 2.88 3.40 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.89 ▼ -0.09
X 3.75 ▼ -0.05
2 2.23 ▲ +0.11

24 snapshots recorded, from .