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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 23

New York City FC vs Nashville SC

0 – 0 Full time

13′Andy Najar
49′Patrick Yazbek
53′Hany Mukhtar
66′P. YazbekM. Corcoran
68′Kevin O'Toole
70′J. SandsA. O'Neill
76′LuighiM. Jones
81′E. SaadA. Qasem
81′C. EspinozaS. Mohammed
89′A. NajarD. Lovitz
89′E. TagsethB. Acosta
90′Malachi Jones
90′Bryan Acosta

Yankee Stadium, BronxReferee: Rosendo Mendoza, USA

New York City FC 30%
Draw 27%
Nashville SC 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 13
1 Shots on target 2
44 Possession % 56
3 Corners 3
14 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 4
3 Saves 1
277 Accurate passes 382

New York City FC vs Nashville SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: New York City FC vs Nashville SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNew York City FCDrawNashville SC
Model24.4%26.6%49.0%
Market32.5%26.8%40.7%
Final30.5%26.7%42.8%
Edge-8.1%-0.1%+8.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Nashville SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Nashville SC below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

New York City ↓ / Nashville SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 9% 9% 1 13% 10% 2 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

New York City FC and Nashville SC expected goals

New York City FC 1.12
Nashville SC 1.66

Total expected goals: 2.78

New York City FC and Nashville SC attack and defence ratings

New York City FC

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Nashville SC

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

New York City FC vs Nashville SC: result vs prediction

New York City FC 0 – 0 Nashville SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

New York City FC vs Nashville SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nashville SC 42.8% 2.34 +8.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.6% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.6% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.0% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2New York City FC30.5%
Draw26.7%
Nashville SC42.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%
Both teams to scoreYes55.6%
No44.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.2%
12 (either side)73.3%
X2 (draw or away)69.5%
Handicap -1Nashville SC win26.8%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss51.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
1-29.6%
0-19.2%

New York City FC vs Nashville SC stats

New York City FC and Nashville SC recent form

newest first
New York City FC DDLLLL
Nashville SC WWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

New York City FC and Nashville SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

New York City FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nashville SC record

  • They have won 16 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New York City FC vs Nashville SC head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3New York City FC wins 2Draws 4Nashville SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-24Nashville SCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-08-17New York City FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-05-31Nashville SCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2024-10-06New York City FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer3-1
2024-06-23Nashville SCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-04-15New York City FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-02-25Nashville SCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2021-10-03New York City FCNashville SCMajor League Soccer0-0
2021-09-03Nashville SCNew York City FCMajor League Soccer3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

New York City FC vs Nashville SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.3%, draw 26.7%, away 38.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.56 3.55 2.50
Bet365 2.90 3.50 2.30
BetVictor 2.88 3.50 2.30
Betano 2.65 3.50 2.57
Betfair 2.55 3.70 2.55
Dafabet 2.65 3.55 2.65
Marathonbet 2.85 3.44 2.32
Pinnacle 2.97 3.64 2.37
SBO 2.42 3.08 2.42
Superbet 2.55 3.55 2.67
Unibet 2.48 3.35 2.70
William Hill 2.70 3.50 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▲ +0.59
X 3.50 ▼ -0.05
2 2.30 ▼ -0.58

22 snapshots recorded, from .